2025 MLB playoff bold predictions: Aaron Judge makes history, Bryce Harper, Vlad Guerrero Jr. make magic, more

The regular season is over and the 2025 MLB postseason begins Tuesday with the best-of-three Wild Card Series. A few division and wild card races came down to the wire in Game 162, and we won’t have to wait long for more high-stakes baseball.

This is Year 4 of the 12-team postseason format. Here is this year’s playoff bracket:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Bye: Blue Jays (No. 1) and Mariners (No. 2)
Wild card: Tigers (No. 6) at Guardians (No. 3) (winner plays Mariners)
Wild card: Red Sox (No. 5) at Yankees (No. 4) (winner plays Blue Jays)

NATIONAL LEAGUE     

Bye: Brewers (No. 1) and Phillies (No. 2)
Wild card: Reds (No. 6) at Dodgers (No. 3) (winner plays Phillies)
Wild card: Padres (No. 5) at Cubs (No. 4) (winner plays Brewers)

The Reds and especially the Guardians mounted huge comebacks to earn their postseason berths. Cleveland was 15 ½ games behind the Tigers at one point. It is the largest division comeback ever, besting the 1978 Yankees (14 games). Now the Guardians and Tigers will see each other again in the Wild Card Series. It’ll be their third series in three weeks.

My preseason bold predictions weren’t half bad, and my motto is if you get a lot of bold predictions correct, you weren’t bold enough. Or at least that’s what I tell myself to feel better. Anyway, let’s do some postseason bold predictions, shall we? Let’s get to it.

1. Ohtani will start a game and close a game

This is not that unusual. Walker Buehler and David Peterson did it last postseason, and so did Tyler Holton (though he was only an opener). Shohei Ohtani is the most unusual of players though, and using him in this way will require some creativity and also push him to a point that maybe the Dodgers don’t want to do in his first full year back from elbow surgery.

There is already talk about using Ohtani out of the bullpen, and doing so would take him out of the game as the DH. The Dodgers don’t want to do that, obviously, so the easiest move is using Ohtani to close the game. Use him as the last pitcher and you don’t have to worry about losing his bat. (At least not unless he blows the lead and the game goes to extra innings.)

The bullpen has been a major sore spot for the Dodgers this year. Ohtani came out of the bullpen in the 2023 World Baseball Classic Championship Game, so he has some experience doing it, and I boldly predict that at some point this October the stakes and the need will be so great that Ohtani closes out a Dodgers win in addition to his starting pitcher duties.

2. Judge will set the AL record for intentional walks

Somewhat quietly, Yankees captain Aaron Judge set the American League record for intentional walks this season. His 36 intentional free passes broke the AL record held by Ted Williams (34 in 1957) and were the most by any player since Albert Pujols had 38 in 2010. The single-season intentional walk leaderboard is decidedly NL heavy. Judge’s total is an AL record but only the 13th highest all-time.

There’s no reason to think avoiding Judge won’t continue in the postseason, even with Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice doing great work hitting behind him all year. Here is the single-postseason intentional walk leaderboard:

1. Barry Bonds: 13 in 2002
2. Albert Pujols: 8 in 2011
3. Barry Bonds: 6 in 2003
4. Chipper Jones: 6 in 1999
5. Several tied with 5

Among the players tied with five are ALers George Brett (1985), Jorge Posada (2000), Josh Hamilton (2010), and Miguel Cabrera (2011). Getting to six intentional walks this postseason feels doable and I boldly predict it will happen. I will note that Judge has been intentionally walked only once in 58 career postseason games, hence the boldness of this prediction.

3. Vlad Jr. will have a signature moment

It was tough sledding for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. down the stretch as the Blue Jays held off the Yankees in the AL East. He had a .375 OPS in Toronto’s final 14 games, and manager John Schneider even called Guerrero out a bit when he “kind of just gave (an) at-bat away” in a loss to the Rays on Sept. 18. It’s not often a manager shades his star player like that.

This bold prediction says Vlad Jr. will have a signature moment this postseason. What qualifies as a signature moment? A lot of things, but you know it when you see it. A huge hit. A great defensive play. Or even an error. That can be your signature moment, right? There are many great players throughout history who had to live down a bad mistake in October.

I don’t know what Guerrero’s signature moment will be exactly but I’m guessing it will be a positive one for the Blue Jays. Even after his sluggish finish to the regular season, it feels like Guerrero is on the verge of doing something enormous this postseason. Vlad Jr. definitely has a flair for the dramatic and the 2025 Blue Jays have been nothing if not dramatic.

4. Harper will hit a walk-off homer

Did you know the Phillies have the longest active walk-off home run drought in baseball? They’ve had plenty of walk-off wins the last two seasons (15 to be exact), but it has been more than two calendar years since their last walk-off home run. Here are the longest walk-off home run droughts in baseball:

1. Phillies: Kyle Schwarber vs. Dodgers (June. 9, 2023)
2. Reds: Christian Encarnacion-Strand vs. Nationals (March 31, 2024)
3. Pirates: Yasmani Grandal vs. Reds (Aug. 25, 2024)
4. White Sox: Andrew Benintendi vs. Athletics (Sept. 14, 2024)
5. Braves: Travis d’Arnaud vs. Royals (Sept. 28, 2024)

The other 25 teams have hit a walk-off home run this season. So, naturally, this next bold prediction says the Phillies will end their walk-off home run drought in October, and Bryce Harper seems like the perfect player to do the honors. He has 17 home runs in 53 career postseason games plus six career walk-offs, albeit only one with the Phillies and none since 2019.

There has been at least one walk-off home run every postseason since 2016 and I predict the streak will continue this year, and Harper will be the one to extend it. He’ll snap Philadelphia’s walk-off home run drought in the process.

5. San Diego’s bullpen will have a scoreless series

The Padres have four closer-caliber relievers in Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and actual closer Robert Suarez. Under-the-radar righty David Morgan is a candidate to make a name for himself this postseason too. Even with Jason Adam suffering a season-ending quad injury, the Padres has the deepest bullpen among the 12 postseason clubs.

San Diego’s starting rotation is a bit shaky and the offense scores juuust enough runs. Their formula is to scratch out a lead and then hand it over to that bullpen. This postseason, that bullpen will give them a completely scoreless series, I boldly predict. This is not actually that uncommon, particularly in the best-of-three Wild Card Series era.

Five bullpens have had a scoreless series since the postseason expanded to 12 teams in 2022:

I’m surprised only four teams got their bullpen scoreless streak to five innings! To spice up this bold prediction, I’ll say the Padres pass those 2022 Guardians and get at least 11 scoreless innings from their bullpen in a series this October. 

The all-time record is 17 scoreless innings for a bullpen in a postseason series. The Dodgers did that against the Cubs in the 2017 NLCS. No other bullpen has thrown even 14 scoreless innings in a single series. I don’t think these Padres will top those 2017 NLCS Dodgers, but I predict they get past 11 for the most shutout innings in a series in the Wild Card Series era. 

6. Starters will average more than five innings per start

A modest target, this is, but it also one starting pitchers failed to reach in each of the last four postseasons. From 2021-24, starters averaged 4.0, 5.0, 4.6, and 4.2 innings per start in October. The last time starters averaged more than five innings in October was 2019 (5.1). The postseason has become so, so bullpen heavy.

This next bold prediction says managers will zig after years of zagging, and trust their starters enough to get them past five innings per start this postseason. I’m not saying it’ll become the October of workhorses. Just something like 5.1 innings per start after years in the fours. I predict this for two reasons:

1. There are some bona fide horses in this postseason. Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodón, Cristopher Sánchez, and Tarik Skubal all finished top eight in baseball in innings. The Dodgers have healthy starters too, for once.

2. There are some bad bullpens out there. And when the bullpen’s bad, teams tend to lean on their starters more. I suspect we’re in for some “let’s try to squeeze a few more outs of our starter” games this postseason, which will up starter innings.

This might not be a prediction as much it is a hope on my part. Starting pitchers are the closest thing to baseball’s main character and I think the game is more exciting when a starter is effective and pitches deep. The bullpen door swinging open and the parade of relievers starting each night is a major drag. This October, the starter will again be the headliner. On that note …

7. There will be a complete game

It has been almost a decade since the last postseason complete game: Justin Verlander, then with the Astros, struck out 13 and allowed one run against the Yankees in Game 2 of the 2017 ALCS. There was a complete game in the postseason every year from 2009-17, and then they just stopped. Bullpens took over and we haven’t seen a complete game since Verlander in 2017.

This bold prediction says the complete game drought ends this October. I’ll get specific too: Max Fried will do it. Fried seems like a good candidate because a) he’s very efficient on his best days, b) the Yankees’ offense can give him a lot of support and breathing room, and c) New York’s bullpen is not great. Manager Aaron Boone could jump at the chance to avoid his relief crew.

8. The home team will win three Wild Card Series

Here’s a weird one: The road team has won eight of 12 Wild Card Series in the three years with the 12-team postseason format, including three of four last year. Home field has not been advantageous in that best-of-three series. Not yet, anyway. This bold prediction says the Wild Card Series will be advantage home team this year. They’ll win at least three of the four series.

I don’t see much reason to believe the road team has a distinct advantage in the Wild Card Series. The road team being 8-4 in those 12 series is small sample size and baseball randomness to the max. We’re due for a course correction. I won’t go as far as to predict which home teams win the Wild Card Series, only that at least three of them will advance. It’s time.

9. A team that has never won a World Series will play in the Fall Classic

That gives us three candidates: Brewers, Mariners, and Padres.The Mariners have never even played in the World Series. They joined the league as an expansion team in 1977. The Brewers (1982) and Padres (1984 and 1998) have at least won pennants. (The Rays and Rockies are the only other teams without a World Series title.) 

The Brewers and Mariners have a leg up on the Padres, who are a wild card team. The Brewers and Mariners won their divisions and secured a Wild Card Series bye. Skipping a round boosts your World Series odds significantly. Don’t listen to anyone who says the layoff is a disadvantage. The Dodgers and Yankees had byes and went to the World Series last year, remember.

We could get a Brewers vs. Mariners or Padres vs. Mariners matchup in the World Series this year, which would guarantee a first-time World Series champion. I won’t go that far with this bold prediction, but I will predict one of the last two teams standing will be playing for their first ever World Series title. 

10. The World Series will go seven games

My last bold prediction is another one that qualifies as a hope as much as a prediction. We’re overdue for a World Series Game 7. We haven’t had one since Howie Kendrick banged the foul pole in Houston in 2019, and that really spoiled us. That was the third World Series Game 7 in four years and the fourth in six years. We haven’t had one since.

The current five-year drought without a World Series Game 7 is not a record, but it is close. The longest drought is eight years from 2003-10. There was a six-year drought from 1913-18, and that’s it. Those are only two World Series Game 7 droughts longer than this one. I think we’re all pulling for this one. The World Series Game 7 drought ends this year. It has been foretold.