First Round, Part One
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(1) Minnesota Lynx vs. (8) Golden State Valkyries
The Intrigue: Stylistic Clash
No team in the league carries the “beautiful game” moniker quite like the Lynx do. They, with MVP candidate Napheesa Collier as the engine, are beacons of spacing, body movement, and ball movement. To strengthen that case, it’s worth noting they led the league in offensive rating (109.5), three-point percentage (37.8) and ranked second in assist rate (72.6).
On the other side, the Valkyries enter the matchup boasting an elite defense (third in defensive rating, 99.8) that does a tremendous job of taking away fruitful looks. Between their aggressive help defense (76.7% help rate on drives, 2nd) and propensity for zone looks (7.3% of possessions, 1st), no team walls off the rim like they do. In fact, only 18.1% of opponent shots came at the rim against them this year; not only was that the stingiest figure in the league, it’s the second lowest clip we’ve seen since at least 2009 (2018 Aces, 14.6%).
The Question: Will Tiffany Hayes be available?
The most recent update we got on the former All-Star, who hasn’t played since August 22, was that she had a had “a good workout” but remains day-to-day.
The Valkyries could sure use Hayes’ drives and ability to draw fouls, on both ends, to give them more of a shot in this matchup. She averaged 16.0 points on 67% shooting from the field against the Lynx in their regular season matchups, her highest scoring and efficiency markers against any team this season.
From a matchup perspective, I’d argue the Valkyries’ best chance in this series is to firmly win the backcourt battle. With Hayes and Veronica Burton (averaging 14-4-7-1-1 since the beginning of August) in the lineup, their chances of doing that would increase.
The Prediction: Lynx in 2
There is a general “the top seed should beat the eighth seed pretty easily” train of thought that isn’t always fair, and can serve as motivation for lower seeds. The Valkyries just capped off a regular season of proving people wrong to a historic degree; expansion teams aren’t supposed to even be here in their inaugural season.
They certainly have a pathway; in addition to the backcourt point from earlier, no team took more threes than the Valkyries this year. There’s certainly a world where some combination of Burton, Hayes, Janelle Salaün, and Iliana Rupert bomb away from deep.
Ultimately, it’s hard for me to trust the Valkyries scoring enough to keep pace with the Lynx’s offense.
Confidence Score™️: 9
(4) Phoenix Mercury vs. (5) New York Liberty
The Intrigue: Frontcourt Firepower
Just look at some of names that will be logging 3-through-5 minutes in this series: Alyssa Thomas, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Satou Sabally, Emma Meesseman, Kahleah Copper, and DeWanna Bonner. That of course leaves out an premium 3-and-D wing in Leonie Fiebich, and a glass-crashing defensive ace in Natasha Mack.
It’s insane the level of skill, size, versatility and physicality we’ll be seeing from these groups. Both Sandy Brondello and Nate Tibbetts will have their hands full trying to mix-and-match in preparation for the other.
The Question: Can Sabrina Ionescu get going?
Ionescu has had an interesting time against the Mercury this season. On one hand, it’s clear that her (pull-up) shooting ability carries a certain amount of weight. The pickup points from the Mercury were incredibly high — Monique Akoa-Makani was in her jersey well beyond half-court — which opened up some high screen opportunities to jump-start possessions.
On the other hand, Ionescu simply hasn’t shot well (6-of-23 from deep) and, as cliche as it sounds, the Liberty are going to need better than that to pull this one off. With Ionescu recently returning to the lineup, I’m curious to see how quickly she can establish a rhythm.
The Prediction: Liberty in 3
I’ve gone back-and-forth with this one. The Mercury won the regular season series between the two, have home court advantage, and have generally made the Liberty work to generate good stuff offensively.
On the other hand, the Liberty are finally healthy and the playoffs do represent a bit of a clean slate. They have some interesting cross-matches to play with to potentially bog down Phoenix’s offense, and this remains a devastating transition attack whenever they’re able to get stops.
I’m going to lean with the “upset” pick in three, but I don’t feel great about it.
Confidence Score™️: 4
