Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
SINNERS, Hailee Steinfeld, 2025. © Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Sept. 26, 2025): We’re just getting started in the wonderful world of Oscar season.
The New York Film Festival kicks off Friday with Luca Guadagnino’s “After the Hunt,” starring Julia Roberts, hoping to rebound after its mixed reception in Venice. NYFF will also host two potential awards spoilers: Daniel Day-Lewis’ much-anticipated comeback drama “Anemone” and Bradley Cooper’s latest directorial effort, “Is This Thing On?”
October brings a slate of regional festivals — Middleburg, Savannah, Mill Valley and Hamptons — offering platforms for fall contenders like Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly” and David Freyne’s “Eternity.” By month’s end, Craig Brewer’s “Song Sung Blue,” starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson, will debut, potentially adding a third major awards hopeful to Focus Features’ crowded roster alongside Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” and Zhao’s “Hamnet.”
Season 12 of Variety’s Awards Circuit Podcast launched this week, spotlighting two performers aiming for Oscar attention: Dwayne Johnson, star of A24’s “The Smashing Machine,” which won the Silver Lion for director Benny Safdie at Venice, and Chase Infiniti, the breakout of Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” which opens in theaters today, Sept. 26. Infiniti was also named one of Variety’s 10 Actors to Watch this year.
In addition, to taking a closer look at still unconfirmed awards submissions, Variety rolled out its first set of Golden Globes forecasts, where titles across genres — including Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Park Chan-wook’s “No Other Choice” — are expected to court attention from the international voting body.
Updated Oscar charts in 21 categories are now live, with original and adapted screenplay projections set to debut this weekend.
Top 4 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “Hamnet” and “Sinners” (11); “One Battle After Another” and “Wicked: For Good” (10); “A House of Dynamite” (8); “Sentimental Value” (6)
Top 4 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (22); Netflix (21); Focus Features (17); Neon (14)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy of NEON “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Director
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sanfic Paul Thomas Anderson ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Kathryn Bigelow
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Ryan Coogler
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor
Image Credit: A24 Timothée Chalamet
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Dwayne Johnson
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Wagner Moura ***
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress
Image Credit: Agata Grzybowska Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Emma Stone
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Netflix Idris Elba
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Sandler
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Universal Pictures Ariana Grande
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Regina Hall
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Kate Hudson ***
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Emily Watson
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Casting
Image Credit: “Sentimental Value” (Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival) “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Susanne Scheel
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine MaislerOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Noah Oppenheim
“Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures)
Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan CooglerOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Focus Features “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Thomas Anderson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Craig Brewer
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story” (Netflix)
Rian JohnsonOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Animated Feature
Image Credit: NETFLIX “Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Production Design
Image Credit: Disney “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole, Ben Procter
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Nathan Crowley, Lee SandalesOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Everett Collection “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Robbie Ryan
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Claudio Miranda
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Łukasz Żal
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho VelosoOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Kate Hawley
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Lindsay Pugh
“Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Colleen Atwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ruth E. Carter
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Film Editing
Image Credit: A24 “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) ***
Kirk Baxter
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Andy Jurgensen
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. ShawverOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix “Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Sound
Image Credit: Macall Polay “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Visual Effects
Image Credit: Courtesy of YouTube/Paramount “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“The Running Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Tron: Ares” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Score
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Jerskin Fendrix
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Hildur Guðnadóttir
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Volker Bertlemann
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig GöranssonOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Song
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“I Lied to You” by Rod Wave
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Train Dreams” by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“The Girl in the Bubble” by Stephen Schwartz
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“No Place Like Home” by Stephen SchwartzOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Credit: Annecy Animation Festival “Endless Cookie” (U.S. Distributor TBD)
Daniel Bekerman, Alex Ordanis, Jason Ryle, Peter Scriver, Seth Scriver, Chris Yurkovich
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
Sam Bisbee, Geeta Gandbhir, Nikon Kwantu, Alisa Payne
“Stiller and Meara: Nothing is Lost” (Apple Original Films)
John Lesher, Lizz Morhaim, Geoffrey Richman, Ben Stiller
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic)
Jean Dakar, Anna Hashmi, Tamara Kotevska, Jordanco Petkovski
“2000 Meters To Andriivka” (PBS)
Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, Raney Aronson-RathOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of the Venice Film Festival “It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
dir. Jafar Panahi
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
dir. Park-Chan wook
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
dir. Joachim Trier
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (U.S. Distributor TBD)
dir. Kaouther Ben HaniaOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
