The wild card round of Major League Baseball’s postseason will conclude on Thursday with three winner-take-all contests. The Cleveland Guardians will attempt to reaffirm their dominance over their divisional rival Detroit Tigers; the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres will vie to see who will meet the Milwaukee Brewers, MLB’s top seed, in the Division Series; and the New York Yankees will try to eliminate the Boston Red Sox in the latest chapter of one of baseball’s greatest rivalries.
Prior to the start of the wild card round, we here at CBS Sports brought you an x-factor that could determine each series. Today, just hours before these three pivotal matchups get underway, we’re breaking out the x-factor branding again to highlight an angle that might dictate who advances.
Let’s get to it.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Both starting pitchers in Game 3 will be making their postseason debuts. No pressure, right? (It just so happens that each hurler was included among CBS Sports’ breakout player picks, too.)
The Yankees will turn to right-hander Cam Schlittler. The 24-year-old started 14 times during the regular season after joining the big-league rotation in July. He amassed a 2.96 ERA (138 ERA+) and a 2.71 strikeout-to-walk ratio, contributing an estimated 2 Wins Above Replacement.
The first thing you might notice about Schlittler is that he has one of the steepest release points in the majors. During the regular season, his release height (around six feet, four inches) would have ranked fourth among qualifiers if he cleared the innings threshold, behind only Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres), Michael Wacha (Kansas City Royals), and Clay Holmes (New York Mets).
The next thing you’ll notice about Schlittler is that he has an explosive upper-90s fastball that represented more than half of his total pitches thrown. Even with that kind of gas at his disposal, the best parts of his arsenal are his series of breaking balls. He has a low-90s cutter that he uses the second most of his pitches, a sweeper that has more horizontal movement, and a knuckle curveball that featured more than a foot of induced vertical drop.
Schlittler mostly worked fastball-curveball-cutter against left-handed batters during the regular season. When he faced righties, he leaned on his fastball variants: four-seamer, sinker, and cutter.
Schlittler’s opposite on Thursday is left-hander Connelly Early. He’s a 23-year-old who, believe it or not, has even less big-league service time to his credit than his counterpart. Early made his debut on Sept. 9 and subsequently generated a 2.33 ERA (179 ERA+) and a 7.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in four starts. He averaged just short of five innings per pop.
Early has geography working in his favor. His delivery features some crossfire action, meaning that his lead leg lands to the inside of his body, making it tougher for batters to pick up the ball. Additionally, Early really gets down the mound, creating a deeper and flatter release point. Much of modern pitching is about angles, deviating from the norm to mess with the batter’s optical processing system. It’s no coincidence that both of these pitchers differ from the standard.
As for Early’s arsenal, he threw six distinct pitches during the regular season: a four-seamer, a sinker, a sinking changeup, a cutter, a sweeper, and a curveball. Early doesn’t throw quite as hard as Schlittler does, but he does keep batters honest with a more varied pitch mix. Early threw four pitches at least 10% of the time versus righties (four-seamer, curve, change, and sinker), as well as five pitches at least 10% of the time against lefties (those four, plus his sweeper).
Managers Aaron Boone and Alex Cora will no doubt have quick hooks on Thursday night. If one of these young starters can come out slinging, they have a chance to punch their team’s ticket to the next round, and to establish themselves on a national platform.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
- X-factor: Can non-Ramírez Guardians step up again?
It’s overly simplistic to write that roster depth gets you to the postseason and stars deliver you to the championship, but it makes for a nifty framing for narrative purposes. With that in mind, the biggest question facing this Guardians-Tigers series, then, is whether or not Cleveland third baseman José Ramírez will make his presence known in Game 3 after a quiet start to the series.
Perhaps the better, more accurate question is this: will the Tigers give Ramírez the chance?
So far, Ramírez has gone 1 for 4 with four walks and a strikeout. He did score a run in Game 2, but his most memorable contribution came near the end of Game 1, when he ran into an out in the bottom of the ninth after being gifted a three-base error.
Beyond that? The Tigers haven’t provided Ramírez with the opportunity for heroics. They walked him three times during Game 2, intentionally or otherwise, and forced the other Guardians hitters to step up. Cleveland’s lineup did just that, with the unlikely trio of George Valera, Brayan Rocchio, and Bo Naylor each launching home runs.
It’s hard to imagine Tigers manager AJ Hinch experiencing a change of heart about how to approach Ramírez heading into Game 3. As such, the onus will again be on Cleveland’s other hitters to deliver, something they didn’t do much of during the regular season.
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
- X-factor: State of the pitching staffs
Thus far at Wrigley Field, we’ve seen a dominant bullpen performance as the biggest takeaway from each of the first two games. The Cubs’ bullpen went 14 up, 14 down in nailing down Game 1 while the Padres relievers in Game 2 worked 5 ⅓ scoreless innings with six strikeouts.
The starting pitching matchup in Game 3 matters, as well as the possibility that a few arms might be more vulnerable than usual due to workloads so far in the series.
When the Padres bat, they’ll deal with Jameson Taillon first. He had a 1.57 ERA and 34 ⅓ innings after returning from injury on Aug. 19. He was better at home this season and in his career has generally been much worse the third time through the order. This season, he had reverse splits (that is, he’s a right-handed pitcher and righties hit him better), so it might not behoove the Cubs to let Taillon see Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado a third time. Andrew Kittredge threw 14 pitches in Game 1 and 20 in Game 2. He’s available, but three straight outings might leave him a bit compromised. The Cubs’ other top relievers — Daniel Palencia, Drew Pomeranz, Brad Keller and Caleb Thielbar — have all only pitched once in the series and none threw enough pitches to worry about Game 3.
When the Cubs come to plate to start, they’ll face former Chicago righty Yu Darvish. The five-time All-Star is now 39 years old and had a 5.38 ERA this season. The Cubs generally hit better at home and better against righties. Darvish has had a lot of trouble in the early innings, too. The Padres will hope he can come through with maybe as few as three innings here. Among the big-gun relievers, there are two possible areas of concern. Lefty Adrián Morejón threw only nine pitches in Game 1, but a season-high 33 in 2 ⅓ innings in Game 2. Uber-talented Mason Miller threw 13 pitches in Game 1 and 27 in Game 2. Both are obviously available for Game 3, but it’s worth wondering if the Padres want to hold them to a lower workload or if they’ll be a bit more hittable. There aren’t similar concerns with Jeremiah Estrada or closer Robert Suárez. Also, starting pitcher Michael King is available out of the bullpen and might be an X-factor here, especially in bridging the gap between a short Darvish outing and handing the ball to the stellar late-inning relievers. — Matt Snyder
