Scientists prepare for the next Carrington Event

Governmental disaster preparedness isn’t limited to crises that originate here on Earth. In fact, experts know that some of the most disruptive and unpredictable occurrences begin on the surface of the sun. For weeks now, emergency planners at the European Space Agency (ESA) in Darmstadt, Germany, have been conducting test runs to improve response capabilities for a cataclysmic solar storm. And while today’s digitally interconnected world means that such an event would inevitably disrupt global systems, researchers are working to ensure humanity has the biggest lead time possible to avoid a worst case scenario.

Solar storms are semiregular events in which the sun belches gargantuan plumes of energized dust and gas towards the planet at speeds as fast as 2 million miles per hour. These waves can disrupt the Earth’s magnetosphere and generate the majestic hues seen during aurora events. The consequences go far beyond a dazzling show in the night sky. Geomagnetic storms can easily scramble satellite constellations, power grids, communications arrays, and essentially any other electronic or geospatial-related infrastructure.

Another Carrington Event

Although a severe solar storm made headlines last year, a 166-year-old event still remains for the most powerful bombardment on record. In August 1859, what’s now known as the Carrington Event struck Earth with enough cosmic force to produce Northern Lights as far south as Central America while also frying early telegraph systems. The Carrington Event was bad enough almost two centuries ago, but such a powerful solar storm today could hobble a society reliant on electronics, global positioning systems, and telecommunications. 

One of the biggest issues would be how the tens of thousands of satellites above our heads might respond. Currently, the ESA is readying the November 4 launch of Sentinel-1D, the first of two orbital payloads intended to provide a constant stream of surface imagery of the Earth. According to Sentinel-1D’s deputy spacecraft operations manager Thomas Ormston, there is currently only so much experts can do to protect that kind of multimillion dollar project.

“Should such an event occur, there are no good solutions. The goal would be to keep the satellite safe and limit the damage as much as possible,” Ormston said in a statement.

The training scenario’s planners didn’t hold back during their runthrough. According to the ESA, the workshop centered on a simulated X45-class flare—a Carrington Event-level situation featuring X-ray and ultraviolet radiation that would disrupt radar, communications, and GPS data approximately eight minutes after launching from the sun.

Three waves of energy

Unfortunately, such an emergency wouldn’t include a single burst of cosmic energy. About 10-20 minutes later, a second wave of high-energy particles including protons, electrons, and alpha particles would strike Earth at nearly the speed of light, frying Sentinel-1D’s onboard electronics and causing possibly permanent damage. Lead simulation officer Gustavo Baldo Carvalho explained that while the first blast would likely take observers by surprise, they knew what was in store for them.

“Once they regained composure, they knew a countdown had begun. In the next 10 to 18 hours, a coronal mass ejection would strike, and they had to brace for it,” he said.

It’s the third strike that would prove most costly. This is the moment when a coronal mass ejection (CME) reaches Earth at a speed of around 1,242 mph and triggers a giant geomagnetic storm. Similar to the Carrington Event or last year’s bursts, observers on the ground would be treated to a colorful aurora show. But that would likely be little compensation compared to electrical grids collapsing, powerlines surging, and satellites falling out of orbit.

“Should such a storm occur, satellite drag could increase by 400 percent with local peaks in atmospheric density,” explained ESA space weather modelling coordinator Jorge Amaya. “This not only affects collision risks but also shortens satellite lifetimes due to increased fuel consumption to compensate for the orbit decay.”

Amaya added that while low-Earth orbit satellites may receive some amount of atmospheric protection, a Carrington-level situation “would leave no spacecraft safe.”

He compared the ESA’s training scenario to planning for a pandemic. 

“We will feel its real effect on our society only after the event, but we must be ready and have plans in place to react in a moment’s notice,” said Amaya.

Planning for the future

It’s far from hopeless, however. The Sentinel-1D training offered the first chance to run through a dire event in collaboration with the ESA’s Space Weather Office. In the meantime, the ESA is continuing with its Distributed Space Weather Sensor System (D3S) that will deploy a new satellite array that provides up-to-date data sources. Meanwhile, the agency is gearing up for the Virgil mission scheduled to launch in 2031. Once completed, Virgil will monitor for dangerous solar events from the “side” of the sun. At that angle, the system can alert teams on Earth to solar events faster than ever, allowing engineers time to prepare vulnerable systems with a larger window than ever before.

“The scale and variety of the impacts pushed us and our systems to the limit, but the team mastered the challenge and that taught us that if we can manage that we can manage any real-life contingency,” said Ormston.

 

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