College football’s sprint to the finish line in the playoff race begins this weekend with several matchups involving top-25 competition that are sure to spike how the CFP selection committee handicaps their rankings moving forward.
Unbeaten BYU’s trek to Lubbock to battle Texas Tech is a heavyweight showdown in the Big 12 that determines the league’s playoff frontrunner down the stretch. Oregon’s tough road game at Iowa is a show-me opportunity for the Ducks, whose lack of quality wins are a major talking point.
In our latest installment of weekly predictions, numerous games are highlighted by multi-touchdown spreads, which means if your appetite’s increasing for a colossal upset, you could be in luck.
Last week’s results: Brad Crawford (6-4, 5-5 ATS); Chris Hummer (6-4, 4-6). Gunner Stockton’s kneel down at the 1-yard line in the final moments of Georgia’s win over Florida is unforgivable if you had the Bulldogs covering, like we did. That one hurt. Hummer’s pick of NC State covering (and winning) against Georgia Tech was a good one and I picked up a game in the standings with Texas outlasting Vanderbilt.
Season results: Crawford (71-29 straight, 52-48 ATS); Hummer (73-27; 48-52).
For clarity, these lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Nov. 3. New users at FanDuel Sportsbook get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
No. 7 BYU at No. 8 Texas Tech
Hummer (Texas Tech -10.5): BYU is good. The Cougars are also fortunate to be unbeaten given how they’ve squeaked out wins. Texas Tech, for its part, is dominant when quarterback Behren Morton starts. Combine those factors with this being a win-or-miss-the-Big 12-Championship game for the Red Raiders, and I’m going to pick the home team. I’m also going to pick them to cover. That’s a lot of points. But the Red Raiders haven’t played a game within 20 points that Morton started. They continue that streak against the Cougars and a true freshman QB. … Texas Tech 34, BYU 20.
Crawford (BYU +10.5): This line’s daring me to take the unbeaten Cougars with the points and against my better judgment, I’m going to do it. Continuing to fade BYU this season is bad juju and I think Kalani Sitake’s team is out to prove a point this weekend. That doesn’t mean they’re going to win, but I like BYU keeping it within the number. … Texas Tech 31, BYU 24.
Hummer (Penn State +13.5): This will be an interesting game for Indiana. Other than Oregon and perhaps Iowa, Penn State is the most talented team the Hoosiers have played this season. The Nittany Lions may have lost five straight, but you saw in the way they pushed Ohio State for a half that they’re still competitive. The advanced stats lean Indiana in this game. I don’t think this game is in question straight up. But I do think PSU is playing well enough and is talented enough up front to keep this close. Penn State covers if it can avoid crippling turnovers. … Indiana 35, Penn State 24.
Crawford (Indiana -13.5): Let’s roll with the Hoosiers again. They’re one of the two best teams in the country regardless of where you think they should be in the polls up to this point and play to a standard all other coaches covet. Fernando Mendoza is one of the Heisman frontrunners for a reason and should have a stellar day inside Beaver Stadium. … Indiana 38, Penn State 17.
No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa
Hummer (Iowa +5.5): This is a fascinating matchup of Oregon’s speed with Iowa’s physicality and line of scrimmage play. The Ducks are a good team in the trenches. But they’re not elite. There’s a world where Iowa controls the line of scrimmage on Saturday. But can the Hawkeyes shorten the game enough to keep the scoring close? I think they do for a good stretch of the game. It’s tough to play at Kinnick Stadium, and Iowa thrives on running the ball and controlling the clock. I’m not picking Iowa outright. I don’t trust a surging Hawkeyes offense quite that much. But give me the cover. … Oregon 24, Iowa 20.
Crawford (Oregon -5.5): Assuming the Ducks play up to the competition here and generate a few explosives in the passing game, Oregon should cover. That said, Dan Lanning’s squad doesn’t have a single win this season over a team inside the top 40 of the Massey Ratings, so they’re untested a bit outside of that home loss to Indiana. We’re going to see if Oregon is a legitimate playoff team this weekend or if it has gotten there based on brand alone through 10 weeks. … Oregon 30, Iowa 17.
Watch Oregon vs. Iowa live Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming live on CBSSports.com, the CBS Sports App and Paramount+ Premium.
Hummer (Georgia -7.5): Georgia’s lived on the edge this season in SEC play. The Bulldogs of Athens have played six SEC games and five of them have been decided by 10 points or fewer. Georgia starts slow and lacks the elite defense they’ve had in past seasons. Mississippi State, for its part, is more competitive than it’s been in years. But I still feel like there’s a big talent gap in this game, and I trust Georgia to go on the road and handle the environment in Starkville. … Georgia 34, Mississippi State 24.
Crawford (Georgia -7.5): Mississippi State snapped its 16-game SEC losing skid last week at Arkansas, much needed positivity for second-year coach Jeff Lebby and his hopes of turning things around in Starkville. Now, this weekend’s home game should include quite a few red-clan Dawgs fans, so the environment might not be as intimidating as most road venues in the SEC. Georgia has to avoid looking past this one against a hungry, now confident, football team. … Georgia 27, Mississippi State 17.
Hummer (Missouri +6.5): Everything we’ve seen from Missouri this year tells you this should be a cover and maybe an upset. The Tigers are excellent in the trenches, run the ball exceptionally well and have the benefit of coming off a bye. The problem is I don’t know what true freshman quarterback Matt Zollers will look like being thrust into action. But I still like the Tigers to make this close. Zollers showed a lot of poise when inserted against Vanderbilt, and the Aggies have been occasionally gettable on defense. The Aggies remain unbeaten, but Missouri keeps it close enough. … Texas A&M 34, Missouri 28.
Crawford (Texas A&M -6.5): Missouri has Texas A&M’s full attention. While this game likely gets the “trap game” connotation elsewhere, you’re not going to find that here. It’s a road game in the SEC and Aggies coach Mike Elko knows his team will need to play their best to take out a well-coached, defensive-minded squad under Eli Drinkwitz. The SEC’s lone remaining unbeaten runs its streak to nine and moves closer to No. 1. … Texas A&M 28, Missouri 14.
Hummer (Clemson -2): This would have been a banger just a couple of years ago. Instead, this is a matchup of two disappointing teams. If you look at the advanced stats, neither of these teams are bad. There are holes. Clemson’s O-line is an issue, it struggles to run the ball and Clemson’s safeties can get picked on. Florida State, for its part, doesn’t create much of a pass rush and can get picked apart through the air. But I’ll take the home team. Clemson is slightly more talented, and they do have the bodies defensively to slow FSU’s run game. … Clemson 24, Florida State 21.
Crawford (Clemson -2): These two teams have fallen hard this season. It’s hard to believe both preseason darlings in the ACC are unranked and fighting for bowl eligibility in November, but that’s where we are in an unpredictable league with two coaches struggling to find wins. At some point, Clemson’s six-game home losing streak to Power Four competition has to end. I’ll go ahead and make the call that it happens on Saturday. … Clemson 23, Florida State 20.
Hummer (LSU +10.5): It’s difficult to know how LSU is going to respond after Brian Kelly’s firing and an offensive coordinator change. These two teams aren’t far apart in terms of talent. But the Tigers have real concerns in the run game and stopping teams from attacking them in the middle of the field. But we’ve seen on more than one occasion teams respond well after an interim change. I think LSU is going to play hard. There’s enough talent there for the Tigers to keep it close. … Alabama 34, LSU 24.
Crawford (Alabama -10.5): Picking too many favorites this week it feels like, but Alabama should be up for this one against one of four SEC teams right now under interim leadership. The Tigers are unranked and outside of the playoff picture while the Crimson Tide are gunning for a top-4 seed and berth in Atlanta with a couple of more wins. Kalen DeBoer continues to stress the week-to-week mentality for his team and quarterback Ty Simpson could take a big step in the Heisman race with a multi-touchdown outing. Give me Alabama, big. … Alabama 31, LSU 10.
Hummer (Navy +24.5): Barring a shock, the Irish are going to win this game. They’re more talented and have the run defense (12th nationally) to slow the nation’s most efficient down-to-down rushing attack. The question becomes can Navy keep it close enough? The Midshipmen will control the clock. But I don’t trust a defense that ranks 87th nationally in yards allowed per play to provide much resistance a week after it got blasted by North Texas. Still, 24.5 is a huge line. Navy puts together one or two long scoring drives and manages to cover. … Notre Dame 38, Navy 14.
Crawford (Navy +24.5): The Midshipmen were my preseason pick to win the American and get to the playoff. That’s not happening after the loss at North Texas knocked Navy from the ranks of the unbeaten, but I think this team will show some fight this weekend against the Fighting Irish. Now, if fumble issues show up again like they did in last season’s matchup, this one’s a rout in the other direction. If you’re taking the Navy side here, you’re hoping for fewer possessions and a couple clock-eating drives from the Midshipment to cover. … Notre Dame 31, Navy 14.
Auburn at No. 16 Vanderbilt
Hummer (Vanderbilt -7): Diego Pavia must be a little sad he didn’t get to face Hugh Freeze one last time. As it is, I’ll take Vanderbilt in this matchup. Auburn’s defense is good. It’s been good all year. But I just don’t see Auburn as constructed, even after a quarterback change, managing to score enough points to beat Vanderbilt. … Vanderbilt 27, Auburn 18.
Crawford (Vanderbilt -7): This one could get ugly when you consider the focus one team has on staying in the playoff race and the other on an interim coach following Hugh Freeze’s firing. The Tigers have managed to keep every SEC game they’ve played within a possession or two this season, hence the line here. It doesn’t matter who starts at quarterback for Auburn, though. Vanderbilt should dominate this one. … Vanderbilt 24, Auburn 7.
No. 1 Ohio State at Purdue
Hummer (Ohio State -28): We’ve seen some weird stuff happen when Ohio State travels to Purdue in the past. But the Boilermakers have shown some real cracks during their seven-game losing streak. The good offensive teams have scored on Purdue without much problem. The Boilermakers aren’t really scoring lately, either, managing just 15 points on average over their last four games. Ohio State is by far the best team Purdue’s seen this season. They get a win and a cover. … Ohio State 42, Purdue 13.
Crawford (Ohio State -28): I’m not a fan of giving a home team four touchdowns, but the Buckeyes are really, really talented. You could make the argument in fact that Ohio State may have the five best players in college football this season at quarterback, linebacker, safety and two phenoms at wideout. It would not shock me here if the Boilermakers keep it close for a half and perhaps cover late, so I wouldn’t go too heavy on this play. … Ohio State 38, Purdue 7.
