Topline
Latino voters overwhelmingly broke for Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Tuesday’s election, indicating President Donald Trump’s gains with the demographic in the 2024 election may be eroding.
New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) (C) celebrates with lieutenant gubernatorial candidate Dale Caldwell (R) after their win during an election night watch party at the Hilton East Brunswick Hotel on November 4, 2025 in East Brunswick, New Jersey. (Photo by Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images)
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Key Facts
Trump received more Latino votes in the 2024 election than any other Republican president in history and only trailed Kamala Harris by three points among Latinos, after former President Joe Biden won the demographic by 25 points in 2020, according to Pew Research.
Both Democratic candidates in Tuesday’s gubernatorial races, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Rep. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, won Latinos by 2-1 margins, according to NPR, citing exit polls.
Sherrill won in the three New Jersey counties with the largest Latino populations—she carried Passaic by 15 points (Trump won by three points in 2024), she won Hudson County by 50 points (Harris won by 28) and she won Cumberland by four points, equal to Trump’s win there in 2024, according to NBC.
Sherrill won all 10 New Jersey counties where one in five people are Latino, and she flipped three Trump won, NPR reported.
The trend in New Jersey marks a notable shift away from Trump, who gained ground last year in all 29 New Jersey townships with a majority Hispanic population, which swung in Trump’s favor by an average of 25 points in 2024 compared to the 2020 election, The New York Times noted.
In Manassas Park, Virginia, where Latinos make up 46% of the population, Spanberger outperformed Harris’ 2024 showing by 22 points, Associated Press election results showed.
News Peg
Sherill defeated Trump-endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli 56.2%-43.2%, while Spanberger beat Republican Winsome Earle-Sears—who Trump did not directly endorse—in a 57.5%-42.3% vote. A small handful of ballots are yet to be counted so the final tally may change slightly.
Big Number
25%. That’s the share of Hispanic voters who have a somewhat favorable or favorable view of Trump, according to an October Associated Press-NORC poll, down from 44% just before he took office.
Crucial Quote
Trump admitted his party performed poorly Tuesday, telling Senate Republicans on Wednesday morning, “I don’t think it was good for Republicans, I’m not sure it was good for anybody,” while partially blaming the government shutdown for the GOP’s showing. He also said Republicans lost because his “name wasn’t on the ballot.”
Key Background
Democrats’ sweep in Tuesday’s elections in New Jersey, Virginia, the New York City mayoral race and a ballot issue in California were widely viewed as a rebuke of Trump’s aggressive second-term agenda and the first major sign that Democrats could improve in next year’s midterm elections compared to their poor showing in 2024. Pre-election polling showed ominous signs for Republicans among Latino voters: A Unidos poll of 3,000 registered Hispanic voters found 65% said Trump and Republicans weren’t doing enough to improve the economy, a five-point increase from April.
Further Reading
Election Day 2025: These Are The Races To Watch—And What They Say About National Political Trends (Forbes)
Billionaire Winners And Losers In Tuesday’s Elections (Forbes)
Trump Says Republicans Lost Because His ‘Name Wasn’t On The Ballot’—Also Blames Shutdown (Forbes)
