Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
NO OTHER CHOICE, (aka EOJJEOLSUGA EOBSDA), LEE Byung-hun, 2025. © Neon /Courtesy Everett Collection
Courtesy Everett Collection
Oscars Best International Feature Commentary (Updated Nov. 6, 2025): The Oscars race for international feature looks to be returning with 86 films competing to bring the statuette home for their respective homeland.
While the Academy has yet to release its official list of eligible titles, the submitted films have already been strategically assigned into seven voter groups, each containing 12 to 13 films. The groupings are curated to ensure diversity in region, genre and running time. Voters must watch all films in their assigned group in order for their ballot to count. First-round voting will take place Dec. 9-12, with a 15-film shortlist scheduled to be announced Dec. 16.
This year’s contenders include buzzy festival breakouts from Cannes, high-profile auteur projects and debut features from emerging cinema markets. Norway’s “Sentimental Value,” co-written and directed by Joachim Trier, is among the most talked-about titles. Many pundits consider it a likely crossover contender for best picture, which by default, makes it the frontrunner for the prize.
Also drawing attention is the Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident,” France’s official entry, directed by the legendary Jafar Panahi. The politically charged drama has generated love across the international, and American festival circuit. South Korea’s “No Other Choice,” from Park Chan-wook, has built momentum following audience awards at Toronto and most recently, SCAD Savannah Film Festival. Park’s previous film, “Decision to Leave,” was a critical darling but failed to land a nom in 2022, leaving many people feeling he’s owed one.
Brazil, last year’s Oscar winner in the category with “I’m Still Here,” returns with another bold entry — Kleber Mendonça Filho’s “The Secret Agent,” a political thriller anchored by a widely praised lead turn from Wagner Moura, who could be among the best actor frontrunners.
Hungary also reenters the conversation with “Orphan,” a historical drama by László Nemes, who won the Oscar in 2016 for “Son of Saul.” Spain’s “Sirāt,” directed by Oliver Laxe and recently nominated for a Gotham Award, is another potential standout, along with Ukraine’s “2000 Meters to Andriivka” by Oscar-winning journalist-turned-director Mstyslav Chernov.
Tunisia’s “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” directed by Kaouther Ben Hania, continues the auteur’s strong Oscar track record. Ben Hania previously earned nods for both “The Man Who Sold His Skin” and “Four Daughters.” That film is among the many top-tier contenders from the Middle East including Hasan Hadi’s “The President’s Cake” from Iraq and Cherien Dabis’ “All That’s Left of You” from Jordan.
Other noteworthy contenders include Palestine’s very own “Palestine 36” by Annemarie Jacir, which was picked up by Watermelon Pictures, and is set during the Arab Revolt of 1936 — a period Jacir describes as “a major turning point in our history.”
Taiwan’s “Left-Handed Girl,” directed by Shih-Ching Tsou and co-written by four-time Oscar winner Sean Baker (“Anora”) has the backing of streaming giant Netflix, which will keep it top of mind when filling out ballots.
France remains the all-time leader in nominations, with 42 nods and 12 wins from 72 submissions since 1948, but hasn’t taken home the statue since 1992’s “Indochine.” Italy, however, still holds the most wins with 14, from 33 nominations. This year Francesco Costabile’s dark melodrama “Familia” has been designated as Italy’s candidate, which launched from the 2024 from the Venice Film Festival.
As of 2025, 135 countries have submitted at least one film to the category, with 64 earning nominations and 30 winning at least once.
After the shortlist is announced, any Academy member may vote to determine the final five nominees — who opts-in — and provided they’ve viewed all 15 shortlisted films.
NOTE: All titles, release dates, and eligibilities are subject to change. The list is not complete, and not all films have yet been qualified for Oscar consideration.
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