Dodgers Need To Tack On Runs If They Want To Win The World Series

It may seem strange to write that a team that is 9-1 in the playoffs and just swept their way into a pennant, needs to get better. But the truth, with the World Series beginning in Toronto on Friday night, the Los Angeles Dodgers need to get better. Not their starting pitching, which has been lights out. Not necessarily their bullpen, which hasn’t really been tested and remains to be seen. But, with their situational hitting.

In a post-game press conference after Game 3 of the NLCS, manager Dave Roberts acknowledged that they need to get better. And then Shohei Ohtani went out and played the best game in the history of the sport, and some people forgot. But the Blue Jays haven’t. And with their ability to grind out at-bats, run up pitch counts, and score with abandon, the Dodgers are going to need every run available if they want to repeat as World Series champions.

Los Angeles’ problematic situational hitting has been an issue for two years running. In 2024, the Dodgers had a 28.7% productive out percentage (defined as advancing a runner with no outs; driving in a runner with the second out of an inning). That was just above the league average of 28.5%. But if you dig deeper, you see that the percentage of runs scored with less than two and a runner on third, the Dodgers were 11^th in the National League. They held the same ranking with respect to advancing a runner who is on second with no outs. And this for a team that was third in the National League in total hits, and led the league in home runs. What they couldn’t seem to do in 2024 was hit a soft ground ball to second or a lazy fly ball to right.

The troubles continued into 2025. This year their productive out percentage was even worse – 28.2%, which was below the league average of 29.9%. And in keeping with a theme, with less than two outs and a runner on third, the Dodgers were again 11^th in the National League. On a positive note, Los Angeles did outpace the league (51.8% vs. 51%) in scoring a runner from third with less than two outs. Again, a team that was fourth in the league in total hits should be better. But, when a club leads the league in home runs, they become reliant upon, and fall prey to, the big hit rather than the fundamental baseball play.*

_{*The Milwaukee Brewers, who the Dodgers swept to advance to the World Series, were second in the National League in hits, fourth in the NL in productive out percentage, second in the league in advancing a runner from second to third with no outs, but only 22^nd in all of MLB in home runs with 166 (22 below average). The Brewers were 6-0 and the Dodgers during the regular season, but 0-4 against them in the playoffs. The NLCS, where the Dodgers out-homered the Brewers 6-1, may have proved the theory that hitting home runs is how a team wins in the post-season.}

It stands to reason that when facing an opponent like the Blue Jays, a failure to situationally hit, a failure to “tack on” runs, will at some point come back to bite them. The Dodgers only scored 15 runs in four games against the Brewers – not exactly an onslaught. Here are just a few examples of where runs were left on the bases:

Game 1: Dodgers Win 2-1

4^th Inning: Max Muncy grounded into the double play heard ‘round the world. This one probably shouldn’t count against Los Angeles, as Muncy did his job and hit a fly ball with a runner on third and less than two outs. But, baserunning (and knowing the rules) is also part of the game.

5^th Inning: Kiké Hernández hit a lead-off double. Andy Pages grounded to short, which did not allow Hernández to move to third. After Shohei Ohtani is intentionally walked, Mookie Betts grounded into a double play.

9^th Inning: Good and bad. A walk and a single put runners on first and second with no outs. Pages then executes a perfect sacrifice, moving the runners into scoring position with one out (good). Milwaukee then intentionally walks Ohtani to load the bases, and Betts takes ball four to force in a run (good). But with the bases still loaded and one out, Alex Call popped out to short (infield fly, no runners advance) (bad), and then Freeman flies out to end the inning (bad). That extra run would have made that nail-biting bottom of the ninth inning considerably less daunting.

Game 2: Dodgers Win 5-1

8^th Inning: Smith leads off with a single, followed by a walk to Muncy. Teoscar Hernández hit a slow roller to third that allowed the runners to move into scoring position with one out (but, it should be noted, this was not great situational hitting; and had he hit it a little harder, it is likely a double play). Tommy Edman then singled to bring in Smith and move Muncy to third with one out. Kiké Hernández walked to load the bases. Pages popped out to short, failing to score the run, and then Ohtani struck out leaving the bases loaded.

9^th Inning: Betts hit by a pitch to start the inning and then Freeman doubled. The Brewers intentionally walked Smith to load the bases with no outs. Muncy struck out swinging, followed by Teoscar Hernández grounding into a double play. In a closer game, in a closer series, that Houdini act often ignites a team to come back. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be for Milwaukee.

Game 3: Dodgers Win 3-1

1^st Inning: Ohtani leads off game with a triple and Betts hits the next pitch for a double, scoring the run. Up 2-0 in the series, playing in front of their home crowd, Los Angeles could have broke the game and the series open with a big first inning. Instead, Smith was called out on strikes on a tough 3-2 pitch, thus failing to move the runner to third. Freeman walked, but then Edman and Teoscar Hernández both struck out to end the threat.

6^th Inning: Smith singled with one out, and then Freeman walked. Edman followed with a single scoring a run and pushing runners to the corners. Teoscar Hernández struck out (again) leaving the runner at third. He got bailed out when Milwaukee’s Abner Uribe, in trying to pick off Edman, threw the ball away, allowing the run to score. With another runner in scoring position, Muncy grounded out to end the inning.

Game 4: Dodgers Win 5-1

1^st Inning: After a massive Shohei Ohtani homer to lead off the game, Mookie Betts singled and moved to third on a Will Smith single. With the pennant on the line and already with a 1-0 lead, with runners on the corners and no outs, Freddie Freeman struck out. Edman picked up his teammate by singling him home, moving Smith to third. Teoscar Hernández again got lucky by hitting a ball simply not hard enough to be a double play, which allowed Smith to hustle home with the Dodgers third run. Bad process, good/lucky outcome.

3^rd Inning: Smith and Freeman both single, putting runners on the corners with no outs. Edman and Teoscar Hernández both proceed to strike out, and then Muncy grounded out to end the threat and the inning.

Look Ahead

Clearly the Dodgers repeated failures in the NLCS were not dispositive. They have now won the National League pennant two consecutive years, and they are the favorite to win the World Series (again). But, if the Blue Jays score runs in bunches and/or if they get to Los Angeles’ battered and tattered and unreliable bullpen and/or if these games become slugfests, the Boys in Blue will need to tack on as many runs as they can. If past is prologue, they may not be able to do so.