Eight Of Top 10 U.S. Imports From China In 2018 Down More Than 50% Now

Eight of the top 10 U.S. imports from China in 2018 have fallen more than 50% since then. Five of those have fallen more than 60%.

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will possibly having their first in-person meeting of Trump’s second term next week in South Korea – we’re still in on-again, off-again mode with Trump. Both men seem content to escalate a trade war that had already intensified since Trump took office for his second term.

Whether that meeting occurs or not, the story in the most recent U.S. Census Bureau trade data makes it clear:

Trump might have won the deficit battle with China – the primary reason for the broad U.S. tariffs in his first term and the larger ones from this year that have been paused – but he is losing the war on the U.S. deficit with the world.

The U.S. deficit with China is down 52.94% from 2018 to today, when comparing the latest year-to-date Census data, which is through July. The deficit has fallen, in that seven-month window, from $296.54 billion to $194.98 billion.

There are other signs. The U.S. deficit with China, more than five times as great as that with any other country in 2018, is little more than 12% larger than the U.S. deficit with Mexico today.

Then, in 2018: China accounted for 20.49% of all imports.

Now, in 2025: It accounts less than half that, for 9.42% through July.

(August trade data, which Census would normally have released last week, has been delayed due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.)

While the U.S. trade deficit with China declined, the U.S. deficit with the world hit $809.29 billion, the first time ever above $800 billion through July. The U.S. deficit with the world today is 29.71% greater than it was in the summer of 2018.

One reason the deficit has continued to climb, even as those imports from China have fallen, is that they are continuing to enter the United States, only now they are stamped Made in Vietnam or Made in India or Made in Taiwan or Made in Cambodia or a host of other countries.

This has not escaped the notice of many, including the Trump Administration. Trump, believing like many others, that China is playing fast and loose with rules-of-origin regulations, has threatened 40% tariffs on transshipment efforts to evade tariffs.

As you will see below, in a closer examination of those top 10 U.S. imports from China in 2018, another country’s name appears as well.

Mexico is gaining meaningful, if not outsized, market share in a couple of those imports. Although it was less significant when I first examined China’s top 10 U.S. imports last June, as so many were abuzz about near-shoring, it appears to be a little more of a reality today.

Here’s a look at those top 10 imports from 2018, with how much the Chinese imports have fallen – only one has increased – which countries have gained China’s lost market share, and how much each has increased overall despite the losses from China. Just these 10 accounted for 31.32% of all U.S. imports from China through July of this year.

1. Cell phones down 55.43%

Imports of cell phones and related equipment (HS 8517) from the world have grown 29.89% while falling 55.43% from China, when comparing the first seven months of 2018 to the same time period this year, the latest U.S. Census Bureau data available.

China’s market share has fallen from 61.78% in 2018 to 21.20% this year. Vietnam’s market share has increased from 5.31% to 20.05%. India’s market share has increased from 0.18% to 18.96%. Thailand’s market share has increased from 3.18% to 11.91%.

There was even a month earlier this year when China was surpassed by India, something that had not happened in at least two decades. Apple has begun manufacturing in India.

2. Computers imports double – but not from China

Imports of computers (HS 8471) from the world have grown 140.73% while falling 67.35% from China.

China’s market share has fallen from 55.03% in 2018 to 7.46% this year. Taiwan’s market share has increased from 2.73% to 30.24%. Vietnam’s market share has increased from 0.74% to 15.65%.

And then there’s Mexico – and the one instance where there might be some “near-shoring.”

Mexico’s market share has jumped less spectacularly – from 29.25% to 36.49% – but with China’s enormous decrease, it was enough to allow it to become the top source in this category.

The story here is that the broad computer category includes hard drives, hard drives in this case that are critical to the booming and nascent server farms for the artificial intelligence industry.

3. Computer parts also up sharply, except for China

Imports of computer parts and related equipment (HS 8473) from the world have grown 182.29% since 2018 while falling 67.50% from China. Again, this is comparing the first seven months of 2018 to the same time period this year, the latest U.S. Census Bureau data available.

China’s market share has fallen from 67.30% in 2018 to 8.02% this year. Once again, Taiwan is a big winner. It’s market share has increased from 5.92% to 51.04% so far this year. Vietnam’s market share has increased from 0.28% to 13.93%. Malaysia’s market share has increased from 0.95% to 6.17%.

4. Furniture and parts down 62.90% from China

Furniture imports have been in the news recently, the subject of Trump’s increased tariffs. Imports in this category (HS 9403) from the world have grown a slender 2.63% while those from China have fallen falling 62.90%.

That steep decline has pushed China from close to a majority of those imports in 2018 to a No. 2 rank behind Vietnam. China’s market share was 49.45% but has dropped to 17.88% through July. Vietnam’s market share has increased from 13.71% to 30.37%. A number of other countries have gained smaller market share percentages, including Mexico (from 5.70% to 8.17%), Italy (from 3.36% to 4.68%) and Thailand (from 0.54% to 2.75%. This is one category where, if there is manipulation of rules of origin, it is less likely to be as significant.

5. Seat imports from China drop 52.86%

Imports of seats (HS 9401), primarily car seats, from the world have grown a miniscule 0.28% since 2018. U.S. imports from China, meanwhile, are down 52.86%.

China’s market share has fallen from 45.66% to less than half that, 21.46%, this year. That allowed both Mexico and Vietnam to slip past it into the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively. While Mexico’s increase in market share was slight, from 27.52% to 33.10%, Vietnam’s quadrupled, from 5.55% to 21.66%.

It would not be surprising to see Mexico’s market share increase here, given the size and scope of the USMCA automotive supply chain, which is allowing imports compliant with the terms of the treaty enter duty-free. It would also not be surprising to see continuing increases in manufacturing in the automotive sector in Mexico by Chinese companies.

6. TVs and computer monitors off 57.97%

Imports of TVs and computer monitors (HS 8528) from the world are down 13.96% while falling 57.97% from China.

China’s market share has been halved. It has fallen from 52.50% in 2018 to 25.65% this year. Mexico moved ahead of China to be the leading importer in this category, increasing from 38.16% to 43.75%. The big gain was with Vietnam, which saw its market share increase from 0.97% to 15.53%.

7. Motor vehicle parts down 17.72%

Motor vehicle parts are another important component of the USMCA supply chain. But China is also an important player in the U.S. supply chain, as the data shows. Worldwide imports in this category (HS 8708) have increased 21.60% while those from China are down just 17.72% through July.

Mexico was the leader in 2018 and remains the leader this year, increasing its market share from 34.76% to 42.26%. That gain of 7.50 percentage points is actually greater than the loss in market share experienced by China, which went from 15.67% in 2018 to 10.60% this year, a drop of 5.07 percentage points. That means Mexico gained market share at the expense of countries other than China. Canada saw a decrease from 13.39% to 12.82%.

8. Toys are only top 10 from China to grow

Remember President Trump’s comment about children and toys back in April as he threatened to push import tariffs on China to 145%? “Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls. So maybe the two dolls will cost a couple bucks more than they would normally.”

Perhaps he knew something, perhaps he didn’t. Perhaps a subordinate had whispered in his ear how dominant China remained when it came to these imports, perhaps he had been reading my posts for Forbes, or perhaps he had seen an overabundance of toys and an underabundance of gratitude with a child he knew.

Regardless, imports in the broad toys category (HS 9503) are the only top 10 U.S. import from China in 2018 to have grown in that time, albeit only 2.15%. U.S. imports from the world, meanwhile, have increased 24.18%.

China remains the No. 1 U.S. source of these imports, even with its market share declining from 82.37% to 67.76%. Two countries stand out for their market share gains: Vietnam and Mexico. Vietnam’s market share more than tripled, from 3.30% to 11.32% while Mexico’s market share almost doubled, from 5.11% to 9.40%.

9. Lamps and lighting parts down 65.43%

Imports of lamp and lighting parts (HS 9405) from the world have fallen 23.57% while falling 65.43%, almost three times as much, from China, when comparing the first seven months of 2018 to the same time period this year, the latest U.S. Census Bureau data available.

China’s market share has fallen from 63.18% in 2018 to 28.58% this year. Nevertheless, China still ranks first for U.S. imports, ahead of Mexico, which gained market share only slightly, from 20.11% to 22.41%.

The big gain is from a now-familiar country, Vietnam, which saw its market share jump from 0.13% to 10.64%. Imports from Canada increased from 5.74% to 9.41% and a host of countries went from less than 1% to well over it: Cambodia, Thailand, India and Malaysia.

10. Handbags, wallets slide, but not French imports

Imports of handbags, wallets and the like (HS 4202) from the world have grown just 1.62% since 2018 while falling 30.09% from China.

China’s market share has fallen from 55.95% in 2018 to 18.32% this year. Cambodia is the big winner here. Imports labeled Made in Cambodia now account for 17.36%, only slightly less than the percentage for China, which still ranks first. France showed a gain from 5.77% to 11.95%, a bigger increase than that for another and another rare European player, Italy, which increased from 8.11% to 12.09%. Indonesia’s market share increased from 1.61% to 7.75%.

The data suggests that President Trump won the battle to de-couple U.S. consumption from China. But the war on the global deficit is being lost, as manufacturing has simply migrated to other countries. The critical next move, which the President could discuss with President Xi in South Korea, is how to police the proposed 40% tariffs on what the Administration believes is a massive transshipment effort. If the U.S. can’t slow the flow of ‘Made in Vietnam’ and ‘Made in India’ goods that were merely assembled with Chinese components, these stunning downturns in China’s top exports will only mark the beginning of a larger, difficult-to-police trade conflict with many more countries.