Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
It’s too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Bijan Robinson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
In four games without Micah Parsons last year the Cowboys had 10 sacks on a 34.4% pass rush pressure rate. They also lost three of the four games (Dak Prescott started all four). Those rates are very much in line with an above-average defense, which is at best what they are now given their injuries and lack of a dominant pass rush. It makes for an easy first game for Philadelphia’s offensive line which returns four starters, several of whom have been part of the O-line that’s let up 13 sacks to the Cowboys in their past six head-to-head meetings. … It should also be mentioned that Philadelphia’s pass rush has changed dramatically since last season — three front-seven starters (15.5 sacks between them) have been replaced. If Dallas’ O-line focuses on stopping the Eagles’ two big defensive tackles then it’ll be interesting if edge rusher Nolan Smith can capitalize. Philly’s secondary also has some changes that might help Dallas move the ball. Ultimately I do think the Cowboys pass a lot, which helps gives everyone in the pass game a shot at a good stat line, Prescott included.
MUST-STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown
STARTS: Dak Prescott (low-end starter), George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Eagles DST
FLEX: DeVonta Smith
SITS: Dallas Goedert (low-end starter), Javonte Williams, Jaydon Blue, Cowboys DST
Without a huge addition to their pass rush, I’d be surprised if the Chargers veered from how they played the Chiefs last year: a little less zone coverage than against other opponents, a little less blitzing too, but plenty of pass rush pressure nonetheless. That formula helped them limit Mahomes in two games. If the Chargers successfully attack the left side of the Chiefs’ young-but-unproven offensive line, then it’s going to be three straight games. Travis Kelce saw a target jump last year in games without Rashee Rice and should see another here, especially if the Chargers opt to cover him with linebackers in space and not man-to-man.
MUST-STARTS: Ladd McConkey
STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Omarion Hampton (low-end No. 2 RB), Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Chiefs DST (low-end starter)
FLEX: Isiah Pacheco
SITS: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Marquise Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Najee Harris, Chargers DST
Atlanta’s big defensive additions were a pair of rookie edge rushers, one of whom (Jalon Walker) is working his way back from a hamstring injury. The other (James Pearce Jr.) had seven hurries on 40 pass rush snaps this preseason. Not bad. I wouldn’t worry about them or the Falcons in general against the Bucs, even with Tristan Wirfs not playing left tackle. … The matchup to really sweat is backup-turned-starter Elijah Wilkinson at right tackle for the Falcons. Wilkinson graded out well, especially in pass protection, over 53 preseason pass block snaps according to Pro Football Focus. However, he last had meaningful playing time in 2023 with Arizona, allowing 25 pressures and drawing six penalties over 501 snaps — at left guard. He last played right tackle in 2021. Something tells me that blitz-happy Bucs coach Todd Bowles will build schemes to attack Wilkinson, who will protect the left-handed Michael Penix Jr.’s blind side. When pressured in three starts last year, Penix completed 36% of his passes for some ugly stats — 5.4 yards per attempt with zero touchdowns and two interceptions.
MUST-STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Drake London
STARTS: Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers DST
FLEX: Emeka Egbuka
SITS: Michael Penix Jr., Darnell Mooney (deep-league flex), Kyle Pitts, Cade Otton, Rachaad White, Chris Godwin, Falcons DST
Bengals defensive coordinator Al Golden’s tendencies at Notre Dame last year suggests he’ll play more man-to-man coverage than former playcaller Lou Anarumo did, that he’ll use safeties against the Browns tight ends, and linebackers a little more often than safeties against running backs. Safety Jordan Battle (73.7% catch rate allowed last year) versus David Njoku would be one matchup I’d look for. … Until rookie Quinshon Judkins signs and gets ramped up (could take four weeks), I think Dylan Sampson will have the opportunity to take touches from Jerome Ford if he can prove his efficiency. He was the 2024 SEC Offensive Player of the Year who broke Tennessee’s school record for rushing touchdowns. Sampson also had modest efficiency as a pass-catcher. Starting Sampson might not be a good idea but rostering him in case he breaks out while Judkins remains unsigned is an easy gamble to take. Plus, the matchup against Cincy’s mostly unimproved run defense looks really good.
MUST-STARTS: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown
STARTS: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku
FLEX: Jerome Ford
SITS: Joe Flacco (high-end No. 2 QB), Cedric Tillman, Dylan Sampson, Harold Fannin, Samaje Perine, Raheim Sanders, Browns DST, Bengals DST
I spent all offseason talking about Tyler Warren’s potential as a player, but I also knew his Week 1 matchup would be a goodie. The Dolphins weren’t good against high-volume tight ends last year and only added safety Minkah Fitzpatrick as a potential coverage guy against the position. Fitzpatrick allowed an 86.4% catch rate to tight ends with the Steelers last year; Dolphins linebacker Jordyn Brooks allowed an 84% catch rate to tight ends. Given Miami’s really deep pass rush, I expect Daniel Jones to get the ball out quick to short-area targets like Warren and Josh Downs so they can make plays after the catch. Warren is worth a Week 1 start.
MUST-STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill
STARTS: Tyler Warren
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle, Josh Downs (low-end PPR flex)
SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (high-end No. 2 QB), Daniel Jones, Michel Pittman, Darren Waller (good one-week stash), Ollie Gordon II, Dolphins DST, Colts DST
While the Panthers will be an improved defense this year, especially with massive D-tackle Derrick Brown back, I suspect their pass rush will be slower to shine than their run defense. It sets up Trevor Lawrence nicely for his debut in a smartly schemed pass game that should see Travis Hunter play a good amount of snaps and win on in-breaking routes against the Panthers’ zone-heavy coverage. But he won’t be the only one — tight end Brenton Strange might land the best matchups against Carolina’s linebackers and could be a really sneaky play. Don’t be surprised to see Lawrence with a good game — if he doesn’t it’ll raise some questions. … I also expect a good debut from Tetairoa McMillan, who figures to be the top receiver for the Panthers. Bryce Young was shaky against zone coverage last year, and McMillan proved in college he can do well against any scheme. The Jaguars figure to move to more zone concepts after bombing out in heavy man-to-man coverage last season, and not a lot of cornerbacks in the league can match up with McMillan’s size. It could be McMillan who keeps the Panthers in this game. FRIDAY P.M. UPDATE: Panthers left tackle Ikem Ekwonu will not play, causing some concern over how effective Carolina’s O-line will be. The Jaguars did add to their pass rush this offseason and will almost certainly attack backup Yosh Nijman.
MUST-STARTS: Brian Thomas Jr., Chuba Hubbard
STARTS: Trevor Lawrence (low-end No. 1 QB), Tetairoa McMillan (low-end No. 2 WR), Brenton Strange (borderline starter)
FLEX: Travis Hunter (low-end PPR flex), Travis Etienne (low-end non-PPR flex)
SITS: Bryce Young, Tank Bigsby, Bhayshul Tuten, Xavier Legette, Hunter Renfrow, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Jaguars DST, Panthers DST
Pete Carroll deserves heaps of credit for turning unknown cornerbacks into shut-down stars, but it might be too soon to expect him to work his magic against the Patriots. In fact, it’s not just the cornerbacks but the linebackers and safeties that offer some appealing matchups for Drake Maye to take advantage of. Tight ends have always been a big part of Josh McDaniels’ offenses and should be keys here, as should rookie TreVeyon Henderson contributing against what’s expected to be a zone-heavy Raiders unit. The only catch — and it’s a biggie — is if the Patriots offensive line can’t consistently protect Drake Maye against pass rush monster Maxx Crosby. FRIDAY P.M. UPDATE: Patriots rookie left tackle Will Campbell is questionable with an ankle injury. That’s not such a good thing considering there are definitely going to be matchups for Crosby to try and feast on.
MUST-STARTS: Brock Bowers
STARTS: Drake Maye (low-end starter), Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson (flex in non-PPR)
FLEX: Stefon Diggs, Jakobi Meyers (PPR flex)
SITS: Geno Smith, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry (desperation TE starter), Dont’e Thornton (stash), Austin Hooper, Kayshon Boutte, Amari Cooper, Jack Bech, Patriots DST, Raiders DST
Brandon Staley’s uninspiring style of defense (usually zone-leaning) combined with a lack of pass rush pop makes the Saints very vulnerable against Kyler Murray. This could end up being a better matchup for Trey McBride than Marvin Harrison because Saints safety Justin Reid figures to be on him the most and that can lead to some good numbers. Plus, the Saints secondary definitely has the talent to run with Harrison (most teams will). The other problem New Orleans has is an unimproved run defense that was bottom five in yards per carry allowed to running backs at 4.8 last year. It’ll make for a busy day for linebackers Demario Davis and Pete Werner against James Conner and a Cardinals offensive line returning four starters from last year. FRIDAY P.M. UPDATE: Saints pass rusher Chase Young has been ruled out, making the matchup easier across the board for the Cardinals. … Arizona’s defense should be much better at getting to the quarterback, a big problem for the Saints given their lack of quality throwers. It might mean a lot of short throws from Spencer Rattler, which will help Alvin Kamara but also Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed on shorter routes. Arizona’s secondary isn’t as improved as its pass rush, so maybe there’s some room for Olave and Shaheed to get by on decent volume, but probably not to the point where you’d confidently start them.
MUST-STARTS: James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Trey McBride
STARTS: Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr. (low-end No. 2 WR), Cardinals DST (and they get Carolina in Week 2)
FLEX: Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed (low-end flex)
SITS: Spencer Rattler, Juwan Johnson, Michael Wilson, Trey Benson, Saints DST
True, both quarterbacks are playing against their former teams, but the Jets cleaned house this offseason, while the Steelers coaching staff knows exactly what they’re getting with Justin Fields after working with him last year. They’re also the same franchise that has answers for Lamar Jackson, another running quarterback. Both teams also have multiple quality cornerbacks — Sauce Gardner and Brandon Stephens for the Jets (who will probably play way more man-to-man than last year), Jalen Ramsey, Joey Porter Jr. and Darius Slay for the Steelers (who may not play much man-to-man against Fields). It adds up to what might be a low-scoring matchup where not many guys contribute to Fantasy managers.
MUST-STARTS: Steelers DST, Jets DST
STARTS: Breece Hall (low-end No. 2 RB), Jaylen Warren (low-end No. 2 RB in PPR only)
FLEX: Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf
SITS: Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers, Jonnu Smith, Braelon Allen, Kaleb Johnson, Mason Taylor (stash), Pat Freiermuth
All eyes will be on Washington’s backfield after a month-plus of change, intrigue, highlights, and now an unofficial depth chart. Here’s a fact: There were six weeks where three players split the Commanders’ rushing workload so that none of them played more than 53% of the snaps, and only in half of them did a runner have at least 15 PPR points. This might be the new normal for Washington until they figure out what they have between veteran and passing-downs stud Austin Ekeler, rookie Bill Croskey-Merritt and third-year powerback Chris Rodriguez Jr. Further complicating things is a Giants defense that should be at least a little bit improved against the run with Dexter Lawrence healthy and rookie Abdul Carter joining a really talented front seven. Washington could find the matchup tricky given their uncertain run game and a Giants pass rush that will be a lot faster in getting to Jayden Daniels than last year.
MUST-STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers
STARTS: Terry McLaurin (No. 2 WR), Zach Ertz (borderline starter), Commanders DST
FLEX: Tyrone Tracy, Austin Ekeler (PPR only), Deebo Samuel (low-end PPR flex)
SITS: Russell Wilson, Bill Croskey-Merritt (stash), Cam Skattebo (stash), Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Giants DST
No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward will make his regular-season debut against one of the league’s toughest defenses in one of the league’s toughest places to play, versus a squad coached by one of the league’s best in Sean Payton. Honestly, it won’t be a good matchup for any Titans, including Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard. Denver’s secondary should be a bit stronger beyond stud corner Pat Surtain and its pass rush will be wound up too. … There’s a chance that an inept Titans offense could impact how the Broncos offense operates. If the game gets too out of hand it may present an opportunity for rookie running back R.J. Harvey to land some good experience and potentially strike gold statistically. There weren’t many games last year where the Broncos running backs put up big numbers, but they did manage to have a back get at least 12.6 PPR points in 4 of 8 games when they won by 10-plus points. That was with inferior backs — Harvey is an upgrade.
MUST-STARTS: Broncos DST
STARTS: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, R.J. Harvey (No. 2 RB)
FLEX: Tony Pollard (borderline No. 2 RB/flex), Calvin Ridley (PPR only)
SITS: Cam Ward, J.K. Dobbins, Marvin Mims, Chig Okonkwo, Titans DST
SATURDAY P.M. UPDATE: NFL Media reported that Christian McCaffrey is expected to play at Seattle.
SATURDAY A.M. UPDATE: McCaffrey hurt himself in practice on Thursday, according to coach Kyle Shanahan. The RB was dressed for practice on Friday but worked on a side field with trainers, landing a “did not practice” designation for the day and listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. Shanahan was tight-lipped and terse when asked about McCaffrey on Friday. He also seemed pretty sincere when he said new rusher Brian Robinson Jr. was “trying” to learn the playbook but he’s “definitely not there yet” after only three practices. When asked if Robinson would be ready to play this Sunday, Shanahan said he knew the gameplan and would be ready “and I know [RB] Isaac [Guerendo] will be also.” Then Shanahan was actually prompted to mention Guerendo and he said he had improved a lot and has overcome setbacks caused by injuries. I might expect the 49ers to use multiple running backs regardless of who’s active. It’s all the more reason to make sure you have one of Robinson or Guerendo on your Fantasy roster. If McCaffrey ends up not playing, neither Robinson nor Guerendo are recommended plays unless we learn one will play much more than the other. It doesn’t help that the Seahawks have one of the most underrated defenses coming into the year.
Brock Purdy has always been pressure sensitive, and the Seahawks learned in their second meeting last season that they could affect him with a lot of blitzing. That same formula figures to be in the cards this week, especially with Seattle’s D-line healthy and restocked with some solid rushers. It helps Purdy that the Niners offensive line will be close to full strength, but it’s not as dominant of a front five as he used to have. His best threats in the passing game are the most predictable: George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall, the latter a fit against man or zone defenses because of his quick speed. It makes protecting Purdy all the more valuable in one of his toughest matchups of the season. … Maybe the most intriguing matchup of the week is Seahawks playcaller Klint Kubiak going up against his pal Kyle Shanahan and the team he worked with two seasons ago. Offseason reports led us to believe he would lean on the run with outside zone principles and play-action passing working off of it. It’s the same stuff the 49ers used to do a ton of, so it figures to be easier for them to defend by knowing what to look for. Plus, the Niners restocked their defense up front with the hope of improving their unit to the dominant way they were a few years back.
MUST-STARTS: George Kittle
STARTS: Christian McCaffrey (if active), Kenneth Walker III (No. 2 RB), Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ricky Pearsall (borderline No. 2/No. 3 WR in PPR), 49ers DST
SITS: Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, Jauan Jennings, Cooper Kupp, Zach Charbonnet, Brian Robinson Jr. (if McCaffrey is active), Isaac Guerendo (if McCaffrey is active), Elijah Arroyo, Seahawks DST
The reason to be nervous to start Jared Goff has little to do with his history at Lambeau Field — he last had 20 Fantasy points there in 2021. The reason to be nervous is that he’ll start with a new playcaller and a reconfigured offensive line, and with Micah Parsons and the already-good Packers defense staring across the line at him. There were five games last year and 11 games in 2023 (playoffs included) when Goff was pressured on more than 35% of his dropbacks. Last year he had 23-plus Fantasy points twice in five games, and 23-plus in three of 11 games in 2023. It’s clearly a weakness that the Packers should be able to exploit, even if Parsons isn’t playing every single down. STARTS: Dak Prescott (low-end), CeeDee Lamb, David Njoku, Jake Ferguson, Browns DST, Cowboys DST
MUST-STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Jameson Williams (low-end No. 2 WR), Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft (low-end starter)
FLEX: Matthew Golden
SITS: Jared Goff (high-end No. 2 QB), Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Isaac TeSlaa, Lions DST, Packers DST
I’m real curious to see how the Texans change up their offense against a Rams team that struggled against tight ends and running backs through the air last year. The offensive line got a full makeover, too, so it might be on C.J. Stroud to get the ball out quick and use everyone in the offense and not just spam targets to Nico Collins. This would have made for a good start for Christian Kirk, but he’s out. Dalton Schultz might have the next-best matchup, but keep an eye on Houston’s rookies, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. … The Rams may also have more of a get-the-ball-out doctrine for Matthew Stafford. Houston’s pass rush is very good and Stafford’s back is obviously an issue. If he’s holding the ball too long it could lead to really bad things, which is why L.A.’s tight ends could be just as important as Houston’s. At least the Rams have a reliable run game to fall back on.
MUST-STARTS: Kyren Williams, Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
STARTS: Rams DST, Texans DST
SITS: C.J. Stroud, Matthew Stafford, Nick Chubb, Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Dalton Schultz (sneaky sleeper), Terrance Ferguson (stash)
When the Ravens beat up the Bills in Week 4 last season they played plenty of zone coverage, didn’t dial up blitzes too often and really frustrated Josh Allen into another terrible game against them. In the playoffs they switched to man coverage more often with a slightly higher blitz rate and got burned a little more by the run, including Allen running for a couple of scores. But the game wouldn’t have been as close if not for multiple Ravens turnovers and some costly Ravens penalties. I wonder if the Ravens go back to a little more zone coverage to keep Allen from taking off. If they do and they keep their mistakes to a minimum, they could walk away with another dominant regular-season win. Allen, by the way, has one career game with 20-plus Fantasy points against the Ravens (25.5 in 2022). You’ll start Allen no matter what, but maybe expectations for him should a little bit in check.
MUST-STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, James Cook
STARTS: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Zay Flowers, Keon Coleman (low-end flex, be patient)
SITS: Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Josh Palmer, DeAndre Hopkins, Rashod Bateman
We don’t know how J.J. McCarthy will fare in live game action, we can’t be so sure that Aaron Jones or Jordan Mason will split evenly (or one dominate touches over another), we can’t be sure the passing game outside of Justin Jefferson will be good. And making things even more murky is a Bears defense that underwent some major changes — new playcaller Dennis Allen has been big on using man-to-man coverage his entire career. So how about something that we do know: Minnesota’s re-tooled offensive line with two quality veterans and a solid rookie should make their whole offense better, including a run game that might ask of more power-gap runs. SATURDAY A.M. UPDATE: Keep tabs on the status of Bears rookie running back Kyle Monangai — it sounds like he will play and may have a decent role to begin the year. He’s stashable for sure. … Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards won’t play, a big disadvantage for that defense.
MUST-STARTS: Justin Jefferson
STARTS: D’Andre Swift (No. 2 RB), T.J. Hockenson, Vikings DST
FLEX: D.J. Moore (PPR only), Aaron Jones (PPR preferred), Jordan Mason (non-PPR only)
SITS: J.J. McCarthy (stash), Caleb Williams (stash), Kyle Monangai (stash), Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, Adam Thielen, Luther Burden III, Bears DST
