Maverick outsider on track to be mayor of New York City

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Remember, remember the fourth of November. No, I haven’t forgotten the November fifth, Bonfire Night rhyme — if you don’t believe me, check the list below. It’s just that Tuesday is going to be quite a significant date in the diary for New Yorkers, who head to the polls with the strong possibility of electing the maverick outsider Zohran Mamdani. If you think that’s astounding, it’s nothing to what his mother told my colleague Guy Chazan.

Mayors are (somewhat bizarrely) a theme of the news diary for the next few days. Almost 100 of them will be gathering on Monday in Rio de Janeiro, alongside business leaders, philanthropists, investors and academics, for the C40 World Mayors Summit on climate action. The event is timed as a forerunner to (the much more significant) COP30, the UN Climate Change Conference meeting that formally begins in Belém on November 10. This week’s three-day powwow in Rio will be chaired by the city’s mayor, Eduardo Paes, alongside his London counterpart, Sir Sadiq Khan.

Then on Saturday, London stages its annual parade to mark one of the world’s longest continuously-run municipal leadership elections, the Lord Mayor’s Show. This year’s procession of marching bands, weird and wonderful charity floats and City dignitaries (some of whom may be seen with glove puppets) will for the first time be called the Lady Mayor’s Show because the 697th holder of the post, elected at the end of September, is Dame Susan Langley. The tradition of processing (on foot or by carriage) from Mansion House to the Royal Courts of Justice on the edge of the Square Mile dates back to Magna Carta, ensuring that the mayor pays homage to the monarch to guarantee independence in governance of London’s financial hub, but really it’s just a lot of fun and IMHO the world’s most joyful street parade.

Moving on to economics, but remaining in the City, we have the last of the major interest rate announcements in the current cycle from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. Most forecasters expect no change from the current 4 per cent base rate, though the decision will again be very finely balanced (possibly another 5-4 vote). A sizeable minority of forecasters see a case for a further 25 basis point cut. Better than expected UK growth data and surveys of activity, such as Friday’s jump in the Lloyds Business Barometer, could be enough to justify a rate hold, plus inflation is clearly on a downward trajectory and private sector hiring remains weak.

We are passing the peak of the current earnings season, but, still, the results keep coming. One theme is air travel, with results from Ryanair on Monday, and from IAG, owner of British Airways and Iberia, on Friday.

Both companies have been hit by waves of strikes by European air traffic control workers, particularly in France, in recent months.

Budget carrier Ryanair has also been in a spat over airport charges in Spain, its second-largest market after Italy, which accounted for 18 per cent of the airline’s revenues during the 2025 financial year to the end of March.

After a strong set of third-quarter results from Shell, analysts are less confident about rival BP, which reports on Tuesday. A trading update last month suggested the oil major had increased its oil and gas production in the quarter but had also suffered an outage at its Whiting refinery in Indiana, US. More details on other companies reporting this week, and the run of central banker speeches, below.

One more thing . . . 

The FT is launching a new newsletter series on Monday called the State of AI, a six-week series that has been commissioned by Elaine Moore, tech comment editor, in partnership with MIT Technology Review. Each edition will delve into different aspects of the generative AI revolution, starting with FT innovation editor John Thornhill writing on US-China relations with Caiwei Chen from MIT TR. Sign up with one click here.

Are you embracing the AI revolution or fearful that there is a bubble about to burst? Email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem speaks at The Logic Summit, a gathering of business and tech industry executives in Toronto

• Bank of Spain governor José Luis Escrivá speaks at the Financial Markets Association’s annual convention in Madrid

• AstraZeneca shareholders to vote on the proposed harmonisation of its listing structure across the London Stock Exchange, Nasdaq Stockholm and New York Stock Exchange, requiring a direct listing of AstraZeneca shares on the NYSE

• Canada, China, Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan (early morning Tuesday local time), UK, US: S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Japan: Culture Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: Q2 public sector productivity figures

• Results: Clorox Q1, Eastman Chemical Q3, Empiric Student Property Q3 trading statement, Loews Q3, ON Semiconductor Q3, Pinnacle West Capital Q3, Ryanair Q3, SBA Communications Q3, Westpac FY

Tuesday

• Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden and US Federal Reserve vice-chair Michelle Bowman will be among the speakers at the Santander International Banking Conference in Madrid

• Russia: Unity Day national holiday. Financial markets closed

• US: September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts)

• Results: AIG Q3, Amgen Q3, Associated British Foods FY, Bharti Airtel Q2, BP Q3, CDW Q3, Daiwa Securities Q2, Diamondback Energy Q3, Domino’s Pizza Group UK Q3 trading update, Gartner Q3, IAC Q3, IWG Q3 trading update, Leidos Q3, Marriott International Q3, Match Group Q3, Mitsubishi HY, Nintendo HY, Pfizer Q3, Pinterest Q3, Saudi Aramco Q3, Smiths News FY, Spotify Q3, Stanley Black & Decker Q3, Telefónica 9M, Uber Q3, Unum Q3, Williams Cos Q3, Yum Brands Q3

Wednesday

• FT Live’s two-day Future of AI event begins at Bishopsgate in London and online. Register here

• FT Live’s two-day Global Wealth Management Summit begins in London and online. Register here

• Canada, China, Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, India (early morning Thursday local time), Japan (early morning Thursday local time), UK, US: Global services PMI data

• France: September industrial production index

• Germany: September manufacturing orders index

• India: Guru Nanak’s birthday. Financial markets closed

• Japan: minutes from the last interest rate-setting meeting

• UK: October Official Reserves data

• EY Item Club Autumn Economic Forecast

• Results: AES Q3, Ahold Delhaize Q3, Amcor Q1, Arm Holdings Q2, Barratt Redrow AGM trading statement, BMW Q3 quarterly statement, Bouygues 9M, CRH Q3, DoorDash Q3, Duolingo Q3, Humana Q3, Iron Mountain Q3, Itochu HY, Jack Henry & Associates Q1, Lyft Q3, Marks and Spencer HY, McDonald’s Q3, Metro Bank Q3, Mitsui HY, The New York Times Q3, Nippon Steel Q2, Novo Nordisk Q3, Qualcomm Q4, Snap Q3, Toyota Q2, Trainline HY, Vanquis Banking Group Q3, Weir Group Q3 interim management statement, JD Wetherspoon Q1 trading update, Wolters Kluwer 9M trading update, Yamaha Motor Q3

Thursday

• Tesla annual shareholder meeting, which will include a vote on a proposed CEO Interim Award of 96mn restricted shares of stock, will potentially make co-founder Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire

• Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK: S&P Global construction PMI data

• Germany: September production index

• UK: interest rate announcement

• US: Q3 productivity and costs data

• Results: Adecco Q3, Airbnb Q3, Air France-KLM Q3, Albemarle Q3, Allstate Q3, ArcelorMittal Q3, AstraZeneca 9M/Q3, Auto Trader HY, Bombardier Q3, Braemar HY, BT HY, Commerzbank Q3, ConocoPhillips Q3, Continental 9M, Cummins Q3, Derwent London Q3 business update, Deutsche Post 9M, Diageo Q1 trading statement, Expedia Q3, Henkel Q3, HgCapital Trust Q3, Hiscox Q3 trading statement, Howden Joinery trading update, ITV Q3 trading update, MetLife Q3, Moderna Q3, National Australia Bank FY, National Grid HY, News Corp Q1, Nikon Q2, Nissan HY, OSB Q3 trading update, Petrobras Q3, Ralph Lauren Q2, Sainsbury’s HY, Securitas 9M/Q3, Skanska Q3, Smith & Nephew Q3 trading report, Take-Two Interactive Software Q2, Tate & Lyle HY, Tripadvisor Q3, Under Armour Q2, Vistry Group trading update, Warner Bros Discovery Q3, Watches of Switzerland HY trading update, Wynn Resorts Q3, Zurich Insurance 9M update

Friday

• Victoria Saporta, executive director for markets at the Bank of England, will be among the panellists at the European Central Bank conference on money markets in Frankfurt

• China: October foreign exchange reserves and trade data

• UK: Halifax House Price index

• US: October employment situation data

• Results: Daimler Truck Q3, Fluor Q3, Honda Q2, IAG Q3, KKR Q3, Macquarie HY, Mazda Q2, Record HY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Brazil: C40 World Mayors Summit 2025, a three-day event co-hosted by the Mayor of London Sir Sadiq Khan and the Mayor of Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes

• Germany: One Young World Summit, a four-day event to encourage those aged 18 to 35 to make a difference with regard to climate justice, peace building, equity, health, technology and human rights through leadership, begins in Munich. Keynote speakers include Sir Bob Geldof and former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau

Tuesday

• Australia: 2025 Lexus Melbourne Cup horse race, historically Australia’s biggest betting day of the year

• Canada: finance minister François-Philippe Champagne presents the annual federal budget to the House of Commons in Ottawa

• US: mayoral elections, including New York. Also, gubernatorial elections held in New Jersey and Virginia. Both incumbents, governors Phil Murphy (New Jersey) and Glenn Youngkin (Virginia), are term-limited and cannot seek re-election

Wednesday

• Brazil: fifth Earthshot Prize awards announced in Rio, with each winner granted £1mn to advance their work. Attendees expected to include the prize’s founder and president Prince William and British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer

• China: eighth Hongqiao International Economic Forum, held in tandem with the China International Import Expo (CIIE)

• UK: Bonfire Night, commemorating the red-handed capture of Guy Fawkes in a plot to blow up the House of Lords in 1605. Separately, the Employment Rights Bill returns to the House of Commons for consideration of outstanding issues, and the Treasury committee takes evidence on upcoming Budget issues from former chancellor George Osborne and former business secretary Sir Vince Cable

• US: Supreme Court to hear challenges to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump will be at the two-day America Business Forum in Miami, whose attendees will include business, government, sports and entertainment figures

Thursday

Friday

• UK: New Lady Mayor of the City of London Dame Susan Langley takes office at the Silent Ceremony at Guildhall, becoming the City’s 697th mayor and the first to use the title Lady Mayor

• Mexico: French President Emmanuel Macron visits to discuss the repatriation of ancient Mexican codices

• US: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán meets Donald Trump at the White House to discuss a path to another US-Russia meeting and to seek an exemption from US energy sanctions

Saturday

• Bolivia: Rodrigo Paz assumes the presidency, marking a political shift in the country after more than two decades of rule by the Movement for Socialism party.

• UK: Lady Mayor’s Show in London

Sunday

• Colombia: CELAC-EU Summit starts in Santa Marta, bringing together leaders from 33 Latin American and Caribbean nations and 27 EU member states to strengthen bi-regional co-operation

• UK: Remembrance Sunday ceremony at the Cenotaph on Whitehall in London