The NFL is funny sometimes. We are coming off a Week 6 slate where maybe the most embarrassing loss of the season occurred with the New York Jets falling to the Denver Broncos in London after they registered -10 net passing yards. They are 0-6 and unquestionably the worst team in the NFL at the moment. So, of course, they are favored in Week 7. Yes, you read that right. And it’s not only the Jets, as the Cleveland Browns, fresh off a nine-point showing vs. Pittsburgh, also find themselves laying points in Week 6.
It’s quite the quirk in the schedule, but a fact nonetheless. Below, we’ll take our first look at these surprising Week 7 lines and analyze why the oddsmakers are swinging the odds in certain directions.
Note: Buffalo and Baltimore are on the bye in Week 7
Week 7 early odds
(All lines via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet; all games on Sunday unless noted)
Steelers at Bengals (Thursday) | Steelers -5.5 | 41.5 | Steelers -280, Bengals +230 |
Rams at Jaguars (in London) | Rams -3 | 46.5 | Rams -154, Jaguars +130 |
Panthers at Jets | Jets -1.5 | 44.5 | Panthers -104, Jets -112 |
Patriots at Titans | Patriots -6.5 | 41.5 | Patriots -330, Titans +265 |
Dolphins at Browns | Browns -2.5 | 40.5 | Dolphins +118, Browns -142 |
Raiders at Chiefs | Chiefs -10.5 | 45.5 | Raiders +440, Chiefs -592 |
Eagles at Vikings | Eagles -2.5 | 42.5 | Eagles -146, Vikings +124 |
Saints at Bears | Bears -4.5 | 45.5 | Saints +190, Bears -230 |
Colts at Chargers | Chargers -1.5 | 48.5 | Colts -102, Chargers -116 |
Giants at Broncos | Broncos -7 | 40.5 | Giants +280, Broncos -350 |
Packers at Cardinals | Packers -6.5 | 43.5 | Packers -330, Cardinals +265 |
Commanders at Cowboys | Commanders -2.5 | 53.5 | Commanders -136, Cowboys +116 |
Falcons at 49ers | 49ers -3 | 44.5 | Falcons +148, 49ers -176 |
Buccaneers at Lions (Monday) | Lions -5.5 | 53.5 | Buccaneers +195, Lions -240 |
Texans at Seahawks (Monday) | Seahawks -3 | 41.5 | Texans +142, Seahawks -168 |
Notable movement, trends
Steelers at Bengals (Thursday)
Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point road favorite, and that has only increased coming out of Week 6 as they are now laying 5.5 points for their divisional matchup with Cincinnati. Aaron Rodgers and Co. find themselves in full command of the AFC North at 4-1, and have been a solid team to back against the spread with a 3-2 ATS record. Their defense has come alive in recent weeks, which provides even more of a challenge for Joe Flacco, who was solid in his first start with the Bengals after being acquired last week from the Browns. Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS this season, which includes a 1-1 ATS record at home.
Rams vs. Jaguars (in London)
Los Angeles opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but that has since trickled down to them laying a field goal (3) to the Jaguars as they square off for their international game in London at Wembley Stadium. Los Angeles and Jacksonville are both tied for a league-best 4-2 ATS record this season, but the Rams (2-1 ATS on the road) have fared a touch better away from their home stadium than the Jags (1-1 ATS).
Panthers at Jets
Remarkably, the Jets are favored, but the number is moving in Carolina’s direction. New York opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but that has since shifted down to Jets -1.5. The offense is in utter turmoil after a lackluster showing against the Broncos in London, where they averaged 1.4 yards per play. That helped drop them to 0-6 on the season, but the play from the defense and special teams helped them cover (3-3 ATS this season). Meanwhile, Carolina is coming off an upset win over the Cowboys at home. The Panthers are 3-3 on the season, but are a drastically different team depending on where they are. On the road, they are 0-3 (1-2 ATS), which is likely why they opened as a dog despite the Jets giving little reason to be labeled a favorite.
Patriots at Titans
The New England Patriots are emerging as a true playoff threat in the AFC and are now a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season after taking down the Saints in New Orleans. Mike Vrabel hopes this positive trajectory continues this week, especially as he goes against his former Tennessee Titans squad for the first time since being fired. Tennessee is 0-2 ATS at Nissan Stadium this season and is 2-4 ATS overall, which is tied for the second-worst ATS record in the NFL.
Dolphins at Browns
Not only are the Cleveland Browns favored in this matchup, but their odds are growing. Initially, Cleveland opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Miami, and that has since ticked up to 2.5 despite a nine-point showing against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Really, this number may have more to do with the Dolphins, who are imploding. They dropped to 1-5 on the season, and the seat under Mike McDaniel is white hot. This season, the Browns are 2-0 ATS at home and will put that undefeated record up against a Dolphins team that is 1-2 ATS away from Hard Rock Stadium.
Raiders at Chiefs
We have ourselves an AFC West showdown in Week 7, but this may be more lopsided than in recent years. Kansas City has been reinvigorated over the last few weeks and is now a 10.5-point favorite at home over Las Vegas. While impressive, it is down from the 11.5-point spread at the open. The Chiefs will welcome back wideout Rashee Rice from his suspension for this game, which should only boost the offense. This season, K.C. is 3-3 ATS, but two of those covers have come at Arrowhead Stadium. As for the Raiders, they are 1-2 ATS on the road.
Eagles at Vikings
Both of these teams will be rested for Week 7 after Minnesota had the bye and Philadelphia played last Thursday. The Eagles are looking to get back on track after falling to the Giants in Week 6, which marked their second-straight loss. Philadelphia has looked disjointed offensively this season, which has contributed to its 3-3 ATS record, but they are 2-1 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Vikings may get quarterback J.J. McCarthy back in the fold for this week as they look to 4-2 overall and improve on their 3-2 ATS record. The line for this game has remained unchanged at Eagles -2.5. Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings are 4-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Saints at Bears
Chicago still has its Week 6 game to play on Monday night, so this line could see considerable movement depending on how that matchup unfolds. That said, the Saints are already getting some love as the numbers are moving in their direction. The Bears opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but that has since ticked down to Bears -4.5. While New Orleans is 1-5 on the season, they’ve played teams tough. Still, they are just 2-4 ATS on the season and 1-1 ATS on the road. Chicago is 1-1 ATS at Soldier Field this season.
Colts at Chargers
This line has remained unchanged from when it opened at Chargers -1.5. Both AFC squads are above .500 on the year and escaped upsets in Week 6. Indy is 4-2 ATS on the season, but is just 1-1 ATS on the road. They’ll face a Chargers squad that is still looking for its first home cover of the season (0-1-1 ATS).
Giants at Broncos
Denver is coming back stateside after narrowly defeating the Jets in London, and is doing so as 7-point favorites at home against the Giants. This is down from the 8.5 points the Broncos were laying at the open, and that decrease could be due to a couple of different factors. First off, it’s a tough scheduling spot as Denver just played internationally while New York had its mini-bye after playing on Thursday night, so they’ll have a sizable rest advantage. On top of that, the Giants have been reinvigorated with Jaxson Dart at quarterback, and the Broncos offense has looked sluggish at times this season. Entering Week 7, these teams have similar ATS records with Denver sitting at 2-3-1 while the Giants are 3-3.
Packers at Cardinals
Green Bay opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and that has only increased after taking down the Bengals in Week 6. Now, they are inching toward being a full touchdown road favorite, laying 6.5 points to Arizona. It remains to be seen if it’ll be another week of Jacoby Brissett for the Cardinals or if Kyler Murray will return after missing Week 6 due to a foot injury. While Green Bay is a heavy favorite in this spot, it should be pointed out that the club is 0-2 ATS on the road this season. They could get their first ATS road win of the season in this spot, however, as the Cardinals are 0-3 ATS at home.
Commanders at Cowboys
Dallas is reeling after a collapse to the Carolina Panthers in Week 6 and has dropped to 2-3-1 on the season. Because of those deficiencies on defense, they are now laying points at home to their division rival in the Washington Commanders. Dallas opened as a 1.5-point underdog, and that has only increased as they are now catching 2.5. Washington still has its Week 6 matchup to play on Monday night, so this line could shift further. The Cowboys are 1-1 ATS at AT&T Stadium this season and 3-3 ATS overall.
Falcons at 49ers
Atlanta still has its Monday night matchup to play, so this line could see some significant movement depending on the outcome of that matchup. However, we’re already seeing things shift away from San Francisco as injuries continue to pile up. The latest is linebacker Fred Warner, who is out for the season with an ankle injury. That has helped move San Francisco down from a 3.5-point favorite to a 3-point favorite. The Niners are 0-2 ATS at home this season.
Buccaneers at Lions (Monday)
The Lions are laying 5.5 points to a red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers team, and one of the key storylines will surround the health of Detroit’s secondary. Their lack of bodies was a key component to their Week 6 loss to Kansas City, and the Bucs could certainly slice them up through the air as well. The Lions are 2-0 ATS at Ford Field this season, but the Buccaneers are 3-0 ATS on the road, so something will need to give here.
Texans at Seahawks (Monday)
The Seahawks opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the line has since hit the critical number of 3, so they are currently laying a full field goal. They’ll be hosting a Houston Texans team that is fresh off the Week 6 bye, but haven’t been tremendously kind to bettors as they own a 2-3 ATS record. That includes a 1-2 ATS mark on the road. Seattle has looked like a playoff threat this season, and Lumen Field oftentimes has the reputation of being a tough place to play, but the numbers don’t exactly paint a similar picture. Under Mike Macdonald (since 2024), the Seahawks are 3-9 ATS at home, which is the second-worst cover rate in the league over that stretch.
