Week 1 of the NFL season is often the healthiest nearly every team will be in the NFL season, but this year 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey (calf) is opening the season with a questionable tag. When McCaffrey’s on the field, he’s one of the most profitable players for NFL player prop bets. He’s often a touchdown machine and a high-volume runner, and if he’s able to go, McCaffrey going Over 71.5 rushing yards is one of the SportsLine model’s best bets for Week 1 NFL player prop picks when online sports betting,
Targeting NFL player props is a popular way to approach Week 1 NFL betting. With NFL props available for almost every player in every game, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your Week 1 NFL picks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, which gives new users 20+ $100 No Sweat Bets in FanCash if your football bet loses.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024.
Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. Now, the model has revealed its top Week 1 NFL player prop picks:
Best Week 1 NFL player prop picks:
- Christian McCaffrey, 49ers, Over 71.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Trey McBride, Cardinals, Over 6.5 receptions (+120)
- Joe Flacco, Browns, Over 231.5 passing yards (-115)
Parlay these picks for +685 odds with a DraftKings promo code, where you can get $300 in bonus bets, as well as over $200 off Sunday NFL Ticket on a $5 bet: (odds subject to change)
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers, Over 71.5 rushing yards (-115)
When McCaffrey is healthy, he’s an elite playmaker. If he’s able to go on Sunday, look for a huge start of the season for a running back who should have fresh legs. McCaffrey only had 65 touches last year, compared to 339 touches in 2023.
The SportsLine model projects McCaffrey for 90.6 rushing yards against the Seahawks. He had more than 100 rushing yards in each of his three games against Seattle in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. The 29-year-old should be in line for another high-volume performance, boosting his chances of going Over his rushing yards total as well. BetMGM is offering McCaffrey’s over/under rushing yards at 71.5, compared to other sportsbooks having him as high as 73.5 rushing yards, and the latest BetMGM promo code gives new users up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses.
Trey McBride, Cardinals, Over 6.5 receptions (+120)
McBride had at least seven receptions in six of his final seven games last season as Kyler Murray’s most dependable and sought-after option. The 25-year-old tight end was fourth in the NFL in receptions (111) and eighth in targets (147) as he plays and is utilized as a wide receiver more than a tight end. The Cardinals return a similar pass-catching group from last season, leaving the model to project another heavily McBride dosage, similar to how last season ended.
The Cardinals open against the Saints, who had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last season. New Orleans ranked 28th in passing yards allowed and allowed the most total yards per game, leading to sustained drives and more opportunities for McBride to haul in passes. The model projects McBride for 8.7 receptions in Week 1 as the model loves the chance to play him at +120 odds at FanDuel. The latest FanDuel promo code gives new users $300 in bonus bets if your first bet of $5 or more wins.
Joe Flacco, Browns, Over 231.5 passing yards (-115)
Flacco played extended snaps in seven games with the Colts last season, and he went Over this total in four of those contests, including each of the final three. Flacco had 330 yards against the Giants and 265 yards against the Jaguars in Week 17 and Week 18 to close last season.
The Browns open the 2025 season against the Bengals, and your best chance at defeating the Bengals is by keeping up with their offense, because it’s unlikely you’ll be able to stop theirs. Flacco will likely be asked to throw often, as he did the last time he started in Cleveland. Flacco played six games with the Browns in 2023 and threw for more than 250 yards in all six games, including more than 300 yards in five contests. The model projects Flacco for 282.6 yards against a Bengals defense that ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed last season. BetMGM is the place to make this play with his over/under at 231.5 yards, compared to other sites listing Flacco’s total as high as 240.5.
Want more Week 1 NFL picks?
You’ve seen the model’s NFL picks for some popular NFL player props for Week 1. Now, get NFL Week 1 projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see the model’s best bets for every Week 1 NFL game, including Bengals vs. Browns, Giants vs. Commanders and Lions vs. Packers. Finally, SportsLine expert RJ White, who went 718-623-37 on ATS picks from 2017-24, returning more than $3,200 to $100 players as SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL expert in against the spread picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets.
The model has also built a five-leg Week 1 NFL parlay that would pay 25-1. Check out the model’s Week 1 NFL parlay only at SportsLine. Visit SportsLine to see the parlay.
